The SPCX perpetual contract is still trading above SpaceX’s $135 IPO price, but it has slid significantly from its May highs as traders cut back expectations for a strong first-day premium.
SpaceX, led by Elon Musk, is preparing for a landmark listing that values the company at around $1.8 trillion, with shares fixed at $135. The stock’s real performance will only be clear once it begins trading publicly.
Until then, Hyperliquid’s synthetic SpaceX market remains one of the few live indicators of sentiment heading into the debut.
That proxy has already seen its premium compress, despite reports that the IPO is more than four times oversubscribed.
The SPCX 5x-leveraged perpetual futures contract has now fallen for three consecutive weeks. It recently traded near $157, about 27% below its mid-May peak around $216, after briefly touching $230.
Although it still sits above the $135 IPO price, the implied upside has narrowed sharply. In May, the contract suggested a premium of roughly 60% over the offer price, but that has since fallen to around 16%.
SpaceX has set a fixed IPO price of $135 per share, with no traditional bookbuilding range for upward or downward adjustment. Investors must accept the price as given or pass on the deal.
This makes the SPCX perpetual one of the only continuously updated pricing signals for SpaceX before its public listing.
Importantly, the contract does not provide any ownership rights or allocation in the IPO. It is a cash-settled derivative that allows traders to speculate on post-listing valuation, with real losses or gains possible before the stock even begins trading.
Institutional demand remains exceptionally strong. Reuters reported that SpaceX has attracted more than $250 billion in orders for a $75 billion raise, pointing to heavy oversubscription, although such figures often include oversized indications of interest.
Even so, SPCX pricing still suggests traders expect SpaceX to debut above $135—just with far less enthusiasm than earlier in the year.
The cooling sentiment may also reflect broader market conditions, as crypto weakness persists ahead of the IPO and bitcoin remains below recent highs. Some investors may also be raising cash to participate in the offering, adding pressure across risk assets tied to the same liquidity flows.
