When measured against the expansion of the U.S. money supply, gold has climbed back to levels that have historically marked major market highs, while bitcoin is retreating toward a support zone that has been pivotal in past cycles.
Gold is now pressing against a key threshold relative to U.S. money supply (M2SL), a level last reached in 2011 and previously exceeded only during the inflation-driven surge of the 1970s. That earlier episode ultimately saw gold prices more than triple, peaking near $700 an ounce at the time.
Bitcoin, often labeled “digital gold” by its supporters, is telling a different story. The cryptocurrency has slipped toward an important support area, revisiting price levels last seen during April’s “tariff tantrum.”
In 2011, gold traded around $1,800 an ounce. Today, it is near $4,500. When viewed against the total stock of dollars circulating through the U.S. economy — including cash, bank deposits and liquid savings — gold is once again testing a resistance zone that has historically coincided with major inflection points.
Gold’s return to that level has been driven by a roughly 70% rally this year. Bitcoin, by contrast, is down about 10% over the same period. Even so, bitcoin continues to notch new highs relative to the U.S. money supply each cycle, and the current pullback is probing a level that also marked the prior cycle peak in March 2024.
The contrast underscores the diverging trajectories of gold and bitcoin as both assets approach technically significant levels.
