Bitcoin is likely to remain stuck in consolidation mode until long-term sellers finish exiting the market and sustained institutional demand begins to emerge, according to analysts.
After sharp price swings in October and November 2025, bitcoin BTC $90,647.21 has stabilized, trading mostly between $85,000 and $90,000 over recent weeks. Several strategists say that range is likely to hold in the near term.
“There are developments that could eventually support higher prices,” said Gerry O’Shea, head of global market insights at Hashdex, citing potential changes in U.S. monetary policy and progress on crypto legislation in Congress. “But right now, we’re seeing a market without a strong directional driver.”
Jim Ferraioli, director of crypto research and strategy at Schwab’s Center for Financial Research, said the slowdown reflects a healthy pause after an exceptional rally. While Schwab does not issue price targets, Ferraioli said the firm remains constructive on bitcoin over the longer term, even if near-term action remains subdued. “This could end up being a relatively uneventful year for crypto,” he said.
Bitcoin surged roughly eightfold from its November 2022 lows to an intraday high near $126,000 last October, Ferraioli noted, adding that the market is still digesting those gains.
Since the October peak, on-chain activity has cooled, while exchange-traded fund flows have become the primary force behind price moves. “Fees were compressed, long-term holders were selling, and exchange balances fell to cycle lows,” Ferraioli said. “ETF flows were doing most of the heavy lifting.”
While ETFs have made bitcoin easier to access, Ferraioli cautioned that they may also be obscuring underlying market dynamics. “Large institutional allocators are still largely absent,” he said. “Regulatory clarity could provide the foundation for a more sustainable rally.”
Hyunsu Jung, CEO of Hyperion DeFi, said bitcoin has lost momentum as investor attention has shifted toward other asset classes, particularly as ETF inflows that surged earlier in the year have slowed. Without renewed institutional demand or a supportive macro backdrop, Jung expects prices to remain range-bound.
Will Reeves, CEO of fintech firm Fold, said bitcoin is waiting for supply-and-demand conditions to reset. “It’s deeply undervalued,” Reeves said. “The market needs persistent sellers to be exhausted and a broader pool of buyers to enter.”
Whether the current phase marks a new crypto winter remains a subject of debate. “By traditional definitions, bitcoin is in a bear market,” Ferraioli said. “But given its volatility, a 30% drawdown is hardly unusual.”
Despite occasional correlation with equities, Ferraioli said bitcoin ultimately moves on its own fundamentals. “Money supply, declining issuance growth, and adoption matter most,” he said. “Adoption is the key uncertainty this year.”
