VanEck’s Matthew Sigel says MARA Holdings (MARA) may seem undervalued, but its leverage and capital structure suggest otherwise.
Over the past six weeks, MARA and Strategy (MSTR)—the two largest publicly traded bitcoin holders—have each fallen roughly 40%. MARA, down 55% year over year, has attracted investor attention as a potential bargain.
Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, notes that MARA’s $4.9 billion in bitcoin holdings is offset by $3.3 billion in convertible debt, leaving roughly $1.6 billion in net bitcoin value before other liabilities. With a $4.7 billion market cap, the stock trades at a premium to its bitcoin holdings, not a discount.
MARA’s short interest of 27% falls to about 15% after adjusting for delta hedging, compared with MSTR’s smaller adjusted decline. Sigel describes MARA’s short interest as structural, while MSTR’s is more fundamentals-driven.
He adds that over half of MARA’s volatility stems from its capital structure rather than bitcoin price swings, concluding that MSTR offers cleaner bitcoin exposure, while MARA’s performance is dominated by its leveraged structure.
