CryptoQuant’s latest report points to a strategic reset, with Strategy cutting back on bitcoin purchases and building a larger USD reserve as it prepares for what may be a weaker stretch ahead. Yet prediction markets continue to assume that the firm will stick to its familiar accumulation-driven approach.
The research outlines a scenario in which Strategy is bracing for a multi-month downturn in BTC. That stance runs counter to the mood on Polymarket, where bettors still expect the company to operate as if the aggressive 2021 playbook remains intact.
According to the report, Michael Saylor’s bitcoin treasury operation is moving away from rapid, reflexive buys and toward a more protective balance-sheet framework. A dedicated USD cache, combined with newly explicit references to hedging or even selling during stressed conditions, underscores the shift.
Prediction markets, however, have not priced in this change. Polymarket assigns only a minimal probability to a first-quarter BTC sale, while odds remain high that the firm will continue its pattern of small, routine purchases. Traders are still betting on consistency, even as each individual buy becomes less meaningful.
The market places only a 40%–45% likelihood on any acquisition clearing 1,000 BTC. CryptoQuant argues these downsized buys — with total monthly accumulation more than 90% below last year’s levels — now function more as brand maintenance than genuine supply absorption.
Strategy’s average purchase has plunged from 15,133 BTC in 2024 to 5,330 BTC this year. Meanwhile, DAT inflows have fallen to their weakest point since mid-June, suggesting bitcoin treasury entities have largely stepped back from soaking up supply.
The combination of softer treasury demand, thinner DAT flows, and a more defensive posture from MSTR presents a different supply backdrop heading toward 2026. Bitcoin’s ability to resume its upward trajectory may depend on new demand stepping in to replace the institutional accumulation that defined the last cycle.
Market Movement
BTC: Bitcoin bounced from an early slide to $91,800 and stabilized around $93,000, though its recent 10% two-day rally is now running into resistance near the 2025 yearly open at roughly $93,400.
ETH: Ether rose above $3,100 and reached a two-week high near $3,200 after gaining 3.5% on the session.
Gold: Gold dipped slightly but held above $4,200 as traders awaited key U.S. inflation data. Geopolitical tensions and expectations of a softer dollar could support a rebound.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific equities were mixed Thursday, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Topix advanced about 1.3% following upbeat U.S. jobs numbers that lifted Wall Street and bolstered expectations for a Fed rate cut next week.
