Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, Jurien Timmer, says the most recent bitcoin bull run has likely run its course, while highlighting the continued strength of gold’s rally.
A long-time supporter of bitcoin, Timmer has become more cautious on the asset, arguing that its price action appears to be lining up once again with the cryptocurrency’s four-year cycle. From both historical analogs and time-based analysis, he believes the current phase closely resembles previous market cycles.
Bitcoin’s October peak near $125,000 — reached after roughly 145 months of cumulative gains — fits well within that framework, Timmer said. He noted that bitcoin bear markets, often referred to as crypto winters, have typically lasted about a year, leading him to see 2026 as a potential pause following the latest halving-driven rally.
“While I remain a secular bull on bitcoin, my concern is that bitcoin may well have ended another four-year halving phase, both in price and time,” Timmer wrote on X. “If we visually line up all the bull markets, we can see that the October high of $125,000 after 145 months of rallying fits pretty well with what one might expect. Bitcoin winters have lasted about a year, so my sense is that 2026 could be a year off for bitcoin. Support is at $65,000 to $75,000.”
In contrast, Timmer pointed to gold’s strong showing in 2025, noting that the metal remains firmly in a bull market while bitcoin has struggled. He added that he does not expect a near-term convergence between the two assets.
Gold is up roughly 65% year to date, outpacing growth in the global money supply, Timmer said. He also noted that gold has retained most of its gains during recent market pullbacks — a pattern he views as consistent with a durable bull market.
