Bitcoin Stays Near $64K as July CPI Meets Expectations
On-chain data suggests Japanese Bitcoin treasury company Metaplanet moved its BTC between wallets it owns rather than sending the coins to a cryptocurrency exchange. The transaction therefore does not appear to be a sale, despite the company carrying an estimated $1.4 billion unrealized loss on its Bitcoin holdings.
July Inflation Comes in Line With Forecasts
U.S. inflation data for July largely matched economists’ expectations. Headline CPI increased 0.1% from the previous month and 3.4% year over year, while core CPI rose 0.2% monthly and 2.5% annually.
Bitcoin remained close to $64,000 after the figures were released. Nasdaq futures moved higher, while Treasury yields declined.
Markets were pricing in a 44% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, lower than levels seen before the inflation report and reflecting recent weakness in employment data.
Dollar Index Tests Important Support
The U.S. Dollar Index is sitting near a key support zone formed by a bullish trendline that has guided its recovery from the January low of 95.55.
A rebound from the trendline could reinforce the dollar’s ongoing upward trend. A decisive break below it, however, could signal that the rally is losing momentum and a broader reversal may be developing.
The next move could depend heavily on inflation data. A hotter-than-expected core CPI reading, which excludes food and energy prices, could give the dollar a significant boost.
Precious Metals Advance Ahead of CPI
Gold and silver both climbed ahead of the inflation report as investors positioned for the latest economic data.
Gold traded around $4,420, gaining more than 1% over 24 hours and approximately 7% during the month. Silver moved above $66 after rising more than 2.5% over the previous day and roughly 12% for the month.
Bitcoin also pushed above $64,000, although its daily gain remained below 1%.
Traders Split on the Fed’s September Decision
Market participants remained cautious ahead of the inflation figures, with geopolitical uncertainty adding to the hesitation.
Kyle Rodda, a senior analyst at Capital.com, said expectations for the Federal Reserve’s September decision were close to evenly divided following mixed signals from recent FOMC communications.
Economists expected July core inflation to ease to 2.5%, while headline CPI was also forecast to moderate. A stronger core reading or continued pressure in categories that feed into the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge could increase expectations for a rate hike and weigh on stocks.
A softer inflation report, meanwhile, could reduce those expectations, particularly after last week’s disappointing employment figures.
AI Earnings Support Stock Futures
U.S. equity futures gained Wednesday as strong earnings from AI-related companies improved sentiment ahead of the CPI release.
CoreWeave surged 16% in after-hours trading following strong demand for AI computing services. Super Micro also jumped 7.6% after issuing a revenue outlook that exceeded even the highest analyst estimates.
The gains lifted Nasdaq 100 futures by roughly 0.3%. South Korea’s Kospi climbed 4%, while Samsung and SK Hynix each gained about 6%.
Markets were particularly focused on the July CPI report, which economists expected to show annual headline inflation slowing to 3.4% from 3.5%.
The data was the first major inflation update since weak U.S. employment figures pushed expectations for a September rate hike down to around 36%. A softer CPI reading could strengthen expectations that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged.
Metaplanet Moves $247M in Bitcoin Between Its Wallets
Metaplanet transferred 3,881 BTC worth approximately $247 million across multiple transactions over three hours on Wednesday, according to Arkham data.
The coins moved from Metaplanet’s cold-storage wallets to newly generated addresses that the company also controls. The BTC was not sent to an exchange.
Transfers into self-custody addresses generally do not create the same immediate selling pressure as deposits to exchanges. Therefore, the latest transactions do not by themselves indicate that Metaplanet was liquidating Bitcoin.
The company has made similar internal transfers before. In March, it moved nearly 5,000 BTC through a series of test transactions and larger transfers to newly created wallets. Analysts at the time viewed the activity as a custody reshuffle rather than a distribution of holdings.
Wednesday’s transactions appear consistent with that earlier pattern, with no obvious on-chain indication of an attempt to sell.
Metaplanet acquired its roughly 43,000 BTC at an average cost of about $96,000 per coin. With Bitcoin trading near $63,600, the company is sitting on an estimated unrealized loss of around $1.4 billion, equivalent to roughly 34%.
The Japanese company has become one of the most aggressive corporate Bitcoin accumulators since April 2024 and has established a long-term goal of holding 210,000 BTC.
