Bitcoin and other risk assets continue to swing sharply as President Donald Trump’s shifting rhetoric on Iran drives a headline-dominated market. With each change in tone, prices across crypto, equities, and commodities are reacting in real time, leaving traders navigating a highly unstable environment.
In recent weeks, bitcoin has seesawed between rallies and pullbacks as expectations around the conflict repeatedly shift. Signals of potential de-escalation have lifted sentiment and pushed prices higher, only to be quickly reversed by more aggressive commentary that sends oil surging and risk assets retreating. The pattern has become increasingly familiar—and increasingly difficult to trade.
Amid the volatility, a few underlying indicators offer a clearer assessment of market conditions. So far, they point to mounting risks rather than relief.
At the center of the issue is the disruption to global oil flows. Since the conflict began in late February, activity through the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints—has nearly collapsed. To offset the impact, the International Energy Agency coordinated a record release of strategic reserves totaling more than 400 million barrels.
These запас supplies have helped bridge a supply gap of roughly 4.5 to 5 million barrels per day. However, those reserves are expected to be exhausted within weeks. If shipping volumes fail to recover, the deficit could expand sharply, potentially doubling to as much as 10 to 11 million barrels per day.
Such a scenario would likely trigger widespread risk aversion across global markets, regardless of political messaging. In that context, bitcoin’s direction may be dictated less by rhetoric and more by whether energy supply disruptions are resolved.
Shipping insurance costs are another critical signal. Premiums for vessels traveling through the Strait of Hormuz have surged from under 1% before the conflict to as high as 7.5% of a ship’s value, dramatically increasing the cost of transport.
A sustained drop in these premiums—especially below 2%—would indicate improving security conditions and could support a more stable recovery in risk assets. Until then, elevated costs continue to reflect significant uncertainty.
For now, there are few signs of normalization. Despite periodic claims that safe passage could resume, tanker traffic remains a fraction of pre-conflict levels, underscoring the ongoing disruption.
Ultimately, while headlines continue to dictate short-term price action, a meaningful and sustained rebound in bitcoin and other risk assets will depend on real-world improvements—particularly the restoration of oil flows and shipping activity. Until that happens, volatility is likely to remain the defining feature of the market.
