Bitcoin is proving more resilient than traditional safe-haven assets as gold and silver come under pressure from ETF outflows, position unwinds and deteriorating liquidity, according to JPMorgan.
Analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou flagged a notable shift in market structure, noting that gold’s liquidity has weakened to the point where its market breadth now falls below that of bitcoin—an unusual development given historical trends.
Despite a sharp pullback from its October highs, bitcoin has held relatively steady in recent weeks following the outbreak of conflict in Iran. The cryptocurrency initially declined alongside broader risk assets, briefly dropping into the low-$60,000 range and triggering widespread liquidations as investors reduced exposure amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
However, that sell-off was short-lived. Bitcoin has since stabilized in the high-$60,000 to low-$70,000 range, even as geopolitical tensions remain elevated and oil prices continue to trade above $100 per barrel.
The price behavior suggests bitcoin is acting less like a traditional safe haven in the immediate aftermath of market shocks and more like a high-beta macro asset—falling during initial risk-off moves before stabilizing as capital flows return and longer-term investors step in.
Meanwhile, precious metals have weakened. Gold has fallen roughly 15% month-to-date, reversing a crowded rally that pushed prices to record highs near $5,500 in January, while silver has followed a similar path lower after peaking near $120. JPMorgan attributed the declines to rising interest rates, a stronger U.S. dollar and widespread profit-taking across both institutional and retail investors.
Flow data underscores this divergence. Gold ETFs have recorded approximately $11 billion in outflows خلال the first three weeks of March, while earlier inflows into silver ETFs have been largely unwound. In contrast, bitcoin investment products have continued to attract net inflows over the same period.
Positioning trends tell a similar story. JPMorgan’s gauge of institutional activity, based on CME futures open interest, shows that exposure to gold and silver built up significantly through late 2025 into early 2026, before declining sharply since January as investors cut positions. Bitcoin futures positioning, by comparison, has remained relatively stable.
Momentum indicators further differentiate the assets. Trend-following funds such as Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) have aggressively reduced exposure to gold and silver, with signals shifting from overbought to below-neutral levels—likely accelerating recent price declines. Bitcoin’s momentum, meanwhile, is recovering from oversold territory toward neutral, suggesting easing selling pressure.
Liquidity conditions reinforce the contrast. Gold’s market depth has deteriorated to the point where it now lags bitcoin, while silver’s thinner liquidity has amplified recent volatility.
At the time of writing, bitcoin was trading near $69,000, with gold around $4,450 per ounce and silver close to $69 per ounce.
