Bitcoin has remained relatively resilient compared with gold since the Iran conflict erupted, but traders may be better off holding “dry powder” as price swings react to headlines, according to Wintermute trader Bryan Tan.
BTC $70,700.76 slipped toward $69,000 on Thursday as tensions in the Middle East intensified, targeting energy infrastructure and reverberating across global markets.
Oil dominated the news, climbing back above $100 a barrel after a Politico report indicated the U.S. is not considering a crude export ban, reversing earlier losses and keeping inflation concerns alive.
Equities felt pressure as investors considered the possibility that central banks might delay rate cuts—or even contemplate hikes—amid rising energy-driven inflation. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both fell nearly 1% in morning trading, marking fresh 2026 lows.
Metals suffered more significant losses. Gold dropped 5% to around $4,500 an ounce, its lowest since early February, while silver fell 6.6%, extending a sharp pullback after weeks of outsized gains.
Crypto markets were comparatively steady. Bitcoin traded near $69,400, down about 2.6% on the day. Other major tokens—including ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), BNB $643.75, and solana (SOL)—posted losses under 3%, while the CoinDesk 20 Index declined roughly 2.1%.
Crypto-linked stocks also fell, though less sharply. Coinbase (COIN) slipped 1.7%, MicroStrategy (MSTR) fell 2.6%, and stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) retreated 6%, giving back part of its recent three-week gains.
Bitcoin holds up amid broad de-risking
The simultaneous declines in gold and bitcoin point to broad risk-off flows rather than a flight into safe havens, said Alvin Kan, COO of Bitget Wallet. Rising energy prices are fueling inflation expectations, reinforcing a “higher-for-longer” rate outlook and tighter liquidity—a challenging backdrop for risk assets.
Still, bitcoin has outperformed gold by roughly 20% since the start of the Iran conflict, Tan noted—a rare dynamic for an asset typically treated as high-risk. Yet the inability to sustain levels above $75,000 signals markets remain cautious and rangebound.
“With sentiment swinging on every headline and bitcoin closely tied to oil, staying flat is often the strongest position,” Tan said. “We favor keeping dry powder until a clear directional signal emerges or market conditions materially change.”
