Bullish sentiment is building in the Bitcoin market, with traders increasingly positioning for a potential move above the $80,000 level in the coming months.
According to Nick Forster, founder of the on-chain options platform Derive.xyz, current options market pricing suggests traders see a meaningful chance of such a rally.
“Current options pricing shows roughly a 35% probability that BTC will reach above $80K by the end of June,” Nick Forster said in an email. He added that improving sentiment in derivatives markets indicates many traders expect bitcoin to recover toward the $80,000 range sometime between June and September.
Options are derivative instruments that allow traders to speculate on the future price of bitcoin while limiting risk to the upfront premium paid for the contract. This structure allows participants to bet on price moves without risking their entire capital.
A call option allows traders to wager on a price increase, while a put option is used to bet on declines and is often employed as protection against market drops.
One key metric traders monitor is options skew — the price difference between call and put options. When calls are more expensive than puts, it signals bullish expectations, while higher put premiums typically indicate a defensive or bearish market outlook.
Recent data suggests sentiment has improved significantly. Bitcoin’s seven-day and 30-day options skews have rebounded to around -6%, up sharply from the -25% levels seen during the market panic in early February when bitcoin briefly plunged toward $25,000.
The shift suggests traders are easing off heavy demand for protective put options and becoming more comfortable with the market outlook.
“Despite earlier fears of a catastrophic crash in crypto markets, derivatives indicators suggest those concerns may have been overstated,” Forster said. “BTC skew — a key sentiment gauge in options markets — has rebounded sharply from around -25% to roughly +10%, signaling a major shift away from aggressive downside hedging.”
Data from the leading crypto options exchange Deribit reflects a similar trend.
Forster noted that traders have increasingly been selling, or writing, put options across multiple venues. This strategy indicates a willingness to accept downside risk in exchange for collecting option premiums, a position typically associated with expectations that prices will remain stable or move higher.
At the time of writing, bitcoin was trading near $70,000, up roughly 5% for the month, according to market data.
