Cantor Fitzgerald Forecasts a Milder, Institution-Led Crypto Winter in 2026
Cantor Fitzgerald sees early signs of a crypto winter in 2026, but expects it to be less turbulent and increasingly driven by institutional investors, DeFi, tokenization, and clearer regulatory frameworks.
Bitcoin (BTC $88,929.75) may face a prolonged correction in line with its four-year cycle. Analyst Brett Knoblauch notes bitcoin is roughly 85 days past its peak, with prices potentially testing Strategy’s (MSTR) breakeven around $75,000. Unlike prior downturns, the firm expects fewer mass liquidations, as institutions now shape market dynamics, creating a divergence between token prices and underlying activity in DeFi, tokenized assets, and crypto infrastructure.
Tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs)—including credit products, U.S. Treasuries, and equities—has tripled in 2025 to $18.5 billion, with projections exceeding $50 billion in 2026 as institutions expand on-chain settlement.
Decentralized exchanges (DEXs) are gaining market share, particularly for perpetual futures, while the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY) provides regulatory certainty and encourages institutional engagement.
On-chain prediction markets, especially in sports betting, have grown significantly, attracting firms like Robinhood (HOOD), Coinbase (COIN), and Gemini (GEMI).
Despite risks—bitcoin trades only 17% above Strategy’s cost basis and digital asset trust accumulation has slowed—Cantor sees the market laying the groundwork for stronger infrastructure and deeper institutional adoption even as prices cool.
