Veteran trader Peter Brandt warns that bitcoin (BTC $87,454.37) has broken its parabolic growth curve, signaling a potential drop to $25,000.
Brandt’s outlook is based on historical post-halving cycles, which usually last 12–18 months before entering bear markets marked by 70%–80% pullbacks from all-time highs.
Each cycle has produced smaller gains: after the 2012 halving, BTC surged roughly 100-fold to $1,240; the 2016 halving brought a 74-fold rise; and the 2020 halving generated an eight-fold increase.
The current cycle, starting after April 2024’s halving, drove bitcoin to $126,000 by October. Since then, BTC has fallen below $90,000, slicing through the parabolic curve that has historically defined major uptrends.
“The current parabolic advance has been violated. 20% of ATH = $25,240,” Brandt wrote on X.
On a log-scale chart dating to 2010, Brandt highlights four steep arcs representing past cycles’ rapid climbs. Historically, breaches below these arcs have marked the end of bull runs—the recent drop beneath the fourth arc may indicate a similar scenario.
