Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered has significantly lowered his Bitcoin outlook, describing the market as experiencing a “cold breeze” rather than a full-blown “crypto winter.” In a research note released Tuesday, the bank’s global head of digital assets cut his year-end BTC target to $100,000 and delayed the $500,000 milestone from 2028 to 2030.
“Recent price action in bitcoin has been challenging, to say the least,” Kendrick wrote in the report titled ‘Not a crypto winter, just a cold breeze.’
The downgrade is largely driven by the collapse in valuations of bitcoin-focused digital asset treasury companies (DATs). Kendrick’s earlier bullish thesis relied on continued BTC accumulation by these firms, but many now trade below the value of the bitcoin on their balance sheets, restricting their ability to fund additional purchases.
“We expect consolidation rather than outright selling, but DAT buying is unlikely to provide further support,” he said.
With DAT activity limited, the bull case now depends mainly on ETF inflows. Revised forecasts include:
- 2025: $100,000 (from $200,000)
- 2026: $150,000 (from $300,000)
- 2027: $225,000 (from $400,000)
- 2028: $300,000 (from $500,000)
Kendrick now anticipates the $500,000 target in 2030. He added that while institutional adoption can be slow due to investment committee processes, it could ultimately drive the next major wave of demand for bitcoin.
