Glassnode’s latest weekly update suggests that bitcoin is slipping into a market environment that closely mirrors the early stages of the 2022 crypto winter. Rising supply in loss, softening spot flows and increasingly risk-averse derivatives positioning are all contributing to a more fragile market backdrop.
A major point of concern is growing capitulation pressure among recent buyers. According to Glassnode’s supply quantiles cost-basis indicator, bitcoin has traded below the 0.75 quantile since mid-November, currently near $96,100. With the spot price sitting beneath this level, more than 25% of the circulating supply is now underwater—a breakdown that also preceded the market slide in 2022.
The amount of BTC held at a loss continues to climb. On a seven-day moving average, supply in loss has reached 7.1 million coins, touching the upper band of the 5–7 million range seen at the height of stress conditions in early 2022.
Still, realized capital flows remain modestly positive. Bitcoin’s realized cap net position change is running around $8.69 billion per month, though this remains far below the summer peak of $64.3 billion.
Off-chain indicators underline a cooling investor appetite. ETF flows have turned sharply negative, with BlackRock’s IBIT fund recording its sixth straight week of outflows—its longest stretch of redemptions since launching in January 2024. The past five weeks alone have seen more than $2.7 billion leave the fund.
Spot market conditions are weakening as well. Glassnode reports that cumulative volume delta has reversed lower, driven by consistently negative readings on Binance. The Coinbase premium, which recently flipped positive for the first time in months, now appears to be sliding back toward discount territory.
Derivatives data paints a similar picture of caution. Open interest has been falling from November into December, signaling reduced enthusiasm for leveraged exposure after the sharp Oct. 10 liquidation event. Funding rates are largely neutral with brief dips into negative territory, and a declining funding premium suggests a more muted speculative environment.
The options market also shows few signs of traders preparing for a major move ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. Earlier in the week, put activity dominated as bitcoin drifted toward $80,000. After prices stabilized, call interest picked up, reflecting calmer sentiment—but not the kind of aggressive positioning typically seen before strong upside breakouts.
