Bitcoin is currently pricing in a recession, even as macroeconomic indicators point to improving growth.
André Dragosch, European Head of Research at Bitwise Asset Management, said on Friday that bitcoin reflects the most bearish global growth outlook since the 2022 Fed tightening cycle and the 2020 COVID-19 crash. Using survey data from Sentix, ISM, and the Philly Fed, Dragosch highlighted a clear divergence: bitcoin’s implied growth outlook has dropped below -1 standard deviation, while survey-based macro indicators remain near neutral. He compared the current setup to March 2020 and November 2022, both of which preceded major bitcoin rallies.
“Bitcoin is essentially pricing in a recessionary environment,” Dragosch wrote, calling the risk-reward scenario asymmetric. “You’re not even remotely bullish enough,” he added, suggesting a recovery could mirror the sixfold rally after the March 2020 COVID shock.
Sentiment remains cautious. The CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index held at 20 (“Fear”) on Saturday, just above its year-to-date low of 10 on Nov. 22.
Bitcoin traded at $90,559 as of 11:30 a.m. UTC on Nov. 29, down 0.8% in 24 hours and 28% below its all-time high of $126,080. Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch Tool shows an 86.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting.
