XRP ended yesterday’s session near $1.35 after climbing to $1.43 two sessions earlier. Analyst Ali Martinez considers $1.38 the key resistance level XRP must overcome for a bullish breakout, with a successful move potentially setting the stage for a rally toward $1.60. Still, the setup remains dependent on whether XRP can maintain its current support structure.
Martinez, who is known as Ali Charts on X, has highlighted a developing triangle between the $1.31-$1.35 support zone and resistance at $1.38. As XRP moves toward the pattern’s apex, holding the lower support area will be important. A strong break above $1.38 could confirm the pattern and potentially accelerate bullish momentum.
On the downside, Martinez cautioned that a move below $1.31 would weaken the near-term bullish outlook. If that happens, the current support zone could turn into resistance during any subsequent recovery.
$1.38 Emerges as a Key XRP Price Barrier
Cost-basis data shows that more than 4.8 billion XRP changed hands between $1.31 and $1.38. This large concentration of purchases could make the range an important demand area, particularly if buyers continue defending prices around those levels.
Above the potential breakout point, however, XRP faces additional supply. About 1.99 billion XRP were accumulated near $1.60, while another 1.98 billion XRP were purchased around $1.68. As a result, $1.60 could represent the first major resistance XRP encounters after breaking above $1.38 rather than being a straightforward upside target.
Falling Open Interest Supports the Rally
XRP derivatives data also presents a potentially favorable signal. Total futures open interest declined by roughly 16%, dropping from 2.77 billion XRP on August 17 to 2.34 billion XRP on August 31. At the same time, XRP gained almost 40%.
The combination suggests that the price advance was not simply the result of traders piling into increasingly leveraged positions.
CME open interest moved in the opposite direction, rising around 36% to 387 million XRP. This lifted CME’s portion of total XRP futures exposure from approximately 10% to 17%.
The increase may reflect growing participation from professional and institutional traders, although CME contracts can also be used to hedge existing exposure. Therefore, the data alone does not necessarily signal a directional bullish bet.
The $1.38 level also lines up with another important area of technical resistance created by moving averages. XRP would need to break convincingly above this threshold to reinforce the bullish scenario and move beyond the major moving averages currently limiting its upside.
