Bitcoin’s Midterm-Year Bottom May Have Arrived Earlier Than Expected
Bitcoin’s previous bear-market bottoms formed shortly after U.S. midterm elections, but its sharp rebound this year suggests the latest cycle low may have occurred well before voters head to the polls.
With the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections just 10 days away, Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching a period historically associated with major market lows. However, the timing of its recovery in 2026 differs from previous cycles.
Bitcoin’s Latest Low Came Months Before the Election
Bitcoin established major bear-market lows in January 2015, December 2018 and November 2022. Each occurred after the preceding U.S. midterm election, with the bottoms forming approximately 71, 38 and 13 days after election day, respectively.
This time, the market reached its lowest level much earlier. Bitcoin dropped to $57,850 on July 1, around 125 days before the upcoming election. By Oct. 22, it had recovered to roughly $81,455, gaining about 40% from its July low.
Previous cycles also featured significant losses in the months before midterm elections. Bitcoin declined approximately 29% during the six months leading up to the 2018 vote and fell around 37% over the same period before the 2022 election.
Technology Stocks Show a Mixed Midterm Pattern
The technology-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust has also experienced declines around previous midterm elections, although its performance has varied.
In 2018, QQQ fell about 23% from the end of September to its December low, with much of the sell-off taking place after election day. Before the 2022 midterms, the fund lost approximately 17% over three months.
However, the pattern was different in 2014, when QQQ advanced 17% during the six months before the midterm vote. This variation suggests that election timing alone does not consistently determine market direction.
Bitcoin Outperforms QQQ Over Three Months
Bitcoin and QQQ have each declined roughly 6% over the past 30 days. Their performance over a longer period tells a different story: Bitcoin remained up 26% over 90 days, while QQQ gained just 3%.
QQQ has also pulled back from its all-time high of $762.86, recorded on Oct. 6.
The historical comparison suggests that Bitcoin’s weakness around U.S. midterm elections may be driven more by its broader market cycle than by the election itself. With Bitcoin already rebounding substantially from its July low, the traditional midterm-bottom timeline may not apply in the same way this year.
