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Flows in bitcoin options and record-high open interest in gold suggest traders are positioning for further downside rather than a sustained rebound.
Bitcoin (BTC) edged up 0.3% to around $58,700 on Wednesday, showing modest resilience after briefly dropping to $57,700 shortly after midnight UTC—its lowest level since September 2024.
Ether (ETH) traded near $1,580, also posting a mild recovery following a dip earlier in the session.
Meanwhile, U.S. equity index futures weakened overnight, with both S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures slipping between 0.2% and 0.4%.
Risk assets, including cryptocurrencies and tech stocks, have struggled in recent weeks as inflation concerns strengthen the U.S. dollar and dampen investor appetite.
Altcoins have taken the biggest hit, as thinner liquidity and weaker demand make them more vulnerable to sharp declines and cascading liquidations.
Derivatives positioning
Roughly $395 million in crypto futures positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours, with long positions accounting for the bulk of losses—unsurprising given bitcoin’s drop below $58,000 earlier in the day.
A notable development is the activity in crude futures listed on crypto exchanges, which saw about $15 million in liquidations—the fifth-largest among all assets—highlighting growing interest in traditional markets on crypto platforms.
Bitcoin futures open interest rose to 768,000 BTC from 740,000 BTC a day earlier. While the increase signals fresh capital entering the market, directional bias remains unclear. Funding rates near 5% point to a mild bullish tilt, but a negative 24-hour cumulative volume delta suggests sellers are more aggressive, executing trades via market orders.
Gold perpetual futures open interest climbed to a record 222,000 XAU tokens. This comes as spot gold flashes a bearish “death cross,” with the 50-day moving average falling below the 200-day—an indicator also visible in major gold ETFs.
Bitcoin and ether’s 30-day implied volatility indices have stabilized following sharp gains in June. Bitcoin’s BVIV index is currently capped by its 200-day moving average and supported by the 50-day. A breakout above the 200-day level could signal renewed volatility and potentially deeper declines.
On Deribit, put options for bitcoin and ether continue to trade at a premium to calls across maturities, indicating sustained demand for downside protection.
At over-the-counter desk Paradigm, traders showed strong interest in bitcoin put options expiring in September at the $50,000 strike—suggesting expectations of a possible drop below that level by the end of Q3. In contrast, a bullish trade appeared in Solana, where a call option at the $86 strike was purchased while the token trades near $75.
Token highlights
While the broader altcoin market remains under pressure, Solana-based DeFi token Jupiter (JUP) has bucked the trend, rising 11% since midnight UTC alongside a 55% surge in daily trading volume.
The move coincides with growth in total value locked, which has increased to over 20 million SOL from 13.9 million in May. The protocol operates as a decentralized exchange aggregator.
Stellar (XLM) also extended gains, climbing from $0.168 on Sunday to $0.196—an increase of about 17%.
These isolated gains have helped keep CoinMarketCap’s “Altcoin Season” index steady around 48/100, even as most of the sector remains weak.
AI-related tokens, however, have continued to underperform. Bittensor (TAO) fell 2.5% on Wednesday and is now down more than 30% since mid-June.
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