Bitcoin recorded losses in both Q1 and Q2 of 2026, marking only the third time in its history that it has started a year with consecutive quarterly declines. In the two prior instances—2018 and 2022—the second half of the year failed to produce any meaningful recovery.
Bitcoin (BTC) ended the first half of 2026 in negative territory across both quarters, placing the year among its rarest and weakest starts. The cryptocurrency dropped 22.2% in the first quarter and another 14.09% in the second, according to Coinglass data, trading just above $59,000 as the third quarter began on Wednesday.
Historically, bitcoin has opened a year with back-to-back quarterly losses only twice before, in 2018 and 2022—both of which ultimately became some of its worst annual performances.
In those years, the back half of the calendar offered little relief. In 2018, Q3 managed a 3.6% gain before Q4 plunged 42%. In 2022, Q3 fell 2.6% and Q4 slipped nearly 15%.
Both periods were driven by broader bear-market conditions—2018 following the collapse of the ICO boom and 2022 amid the fallout from the Terra stablecoin crash and the FTX exchange failure.
Bitcoin’s seasonal tendencies typically point in the opposite direction. The fourth quarter has historically been its strongest, averaging a 77% gain and a median near 48%, often offsetting earlier weakness. By contrast, the third quarter tends to be the weakest, frequently flat or mildly negative.
However, in both 2018 and 2022, those seasonal patterns broke down as macro bear-market pressures overwhelmed typical trends, turning the usually strong Q4 into a period of steep declines.
Although the sample size is limited and each cycle had distinct causes, the pattern suggests that such weak starts to the year have historically coincided with deeper structural downturns rather than temporary pullbacks.
Whether 2026 follows that precedent remains unclear, with current market conditions appearing more gradual than panic-driven.
Recent data shows U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs continuing to post record outflows, onchain activity remaining subdued, and capital rotating toward AI equities, which have delivered strong gains while crypto has lagged.
A stronger U.S. dollar—supported by the yen’s drop to a 40-year low—has added additional pressure on risk assets.
FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich has identified $40,000 as a key downside support level if weakness intensifies. The third quarter has opened slightly positive, up around 1%, leaving the broader trend uncertain.
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