Citi has lowered its 12-month forecasts for bitcoin and ether after removing its assumptions for ETF inflows, citing stalled U.S. crypto legislation and weakening investor appetite.
The Wall Street bank reduced its price targets for bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH), pointing to a sharp slowdown in exchange-traded fund demand and fading expectations that regulatory progress in the U.S. will restore momentum.
Citi now sees bitcoin reaching $82,000 in its base case, down from $112,000, while ether is projected at $2,240, down from $3,175. It has also revised its outlook to assume zero net ETF inflows over the next year, abandoning its prior view that clearer regulation would attract new institutional capital.
At the time of writing, bitcoin traded near $58,400 and ether around $1,570.
“The absence of a catalyst for increased investor interest means we reduce our base-case flow expectations to zero over the next 12 months,” wrote analyst Alex Saunders in a Tuesday report.
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, once the dominant source of institutional demand since launching in 2024, have seen significant weakness in recent months. In June, the funds recorded $4 billion in net outflows—the largest monthly withdrawal on record—following a 13-day streak of redemptions that pushed year-to-date flows into negative territory.
The revision marks a sharp turnaround from Citi’s earlier outlook, which assumed that U.S. digital asset market structure legislation would encourage wider adoption among financial advisors and traditional investors. The bank now believes that timeline has been pushed back, leaving the market without a strong near-term catalyst.
Saunders noted that ETF flows remain the key driver of crypto prices, with recent data showing investors pulling back from risk exposure.
The report also raised concerns that digital asset treasury (DAT) firms could turn into net sellers of bitcoin, a worry amplified by recent actions from Strategy, even though actual sales have been limited.
It added that both bitcoin and ether are trading below key technical levels, including their 200-day moving averages, while speculative capital has increasingly rotated into AI-related assets.
Citi’s updated framework assumes flat ETF flows in its base case. In a bullish scenario, stronger institutional and retail demand could lift bitcoin to $108,000 and ether to $2,932. In a bearish scenario driven by recessionary pressures and continued ETF outflows, bitcoin could drop to $53,000 and ether to $1,094.
While Citi is slightly more constructive on U.S. equities overall—offering some indirect support via correlations—it said broader macro strength is not enough to offset weakening crypto-specific inflows.
Even so, the bank emphasized that ETF flows remain the single most important variable in its valuation model, noting that any rebound in demand or surprise regulatory progress could quickly shift its outlook.
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