Bitcoin Faces Thanksgiving in Extended Downtrend
Bitcoin BTC enters Thanksgiving after a 35% drop from its October all-time high, marking its fifth straight weekly decline. The day before the holiday has historically been weak, with six of the past seven sessions closing lower. In 2020 and 2021, BTC fell around 8%, likely due to thin liquidity and reduced hedging activity.
Thanksgiving itself is usually flat, averaging 1.5% gains since 2013, with only four negative sessions. The day after tends to perform better, averaging over 2.3% gains. On a weekly basis, Thanksgiving generally falls in week 47, historically returning around 3%, while late-week 46 has sometimes averaged more than 6%.
While Q4 is normally Bitcoin’s strongest quarter, Q4 2025 is down 23%, with November alone dropping over 20%, its worst month since June 2022. BTC remains in a seven-week drawdown from its $126,000 October high, and options expiries may add near-term volatility.
Bitcoin appears set to finish below the 2024 Thanksgiving level of $95,380, a scenario seen in 2015, 2018, and 2022. Institutional investors via spot ETFs and corporate treasuries now dominate, leaving retail traders exposed. October saw $19 billion in retail liquidations, highlighting the impact of thinner liquidity and the market’s structural shift.
