Semler Scientific Trades Well Below Strive Takeout Value Amid Bitcoin Treasury Acquisition
Shares of Semler Scientific (SMLR) closed at $32.06 yesterday, significantly below the $86.30 implied takeout price in its all-stock acquisition by Strive (ASST). Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer said the wide arbitrage spread reflects both market caution and potential upside in the emerging bitcoin treasury M&A landscape.
Palmer reaffirmed his buy rating on Semler while lowering the stock’s price target from $101 to $86 to reflect the Strive deal. The fixed exchange ratio of 21.05 Strive shares per Semler share presents a potential arbitrage opportunity, particularly with both boards having approved the transaction.
The merger would combine Strive’s 5,886 BTC with Semler’s 5,021 BTC, totaling 10,907 bitcoins — ranking 12th among publicly traded companies by crypto holdings, trailing only Strategy, Benchmark noted.
Beyond bitcoin, the deal gives Strive access to Semler’s diagnostics business, which it plans to monetize or spin off post-closing, providing cash-flow flexibility beyond purely crypto-focused assets.
Benchmark views this transaction as the first step in a potential wave of stock-for-stock bitcoin treasury consolidations. By leveraging equity rather than debt, Strive aims to acquire BTC at favorable prices while avoiding traditional financing risks.
Risks remain, including the need for an effective S-4 registration and Semler shareholder approval. A significant drop in Strive’s share price or bitcoin before the vote could pressure deal terms. “If Strive’s price weakens materially into the vote, the implied value to SMLR drops, potentially triggering renegotiation or widening the arbitrage haircut,” Benchmark said.
Premarket, SMLR rose 2.5% to $32.86, while ASST fell 4.9% to $3.90.
