Bitcoin is heading toward its sharpest weekly decline since March as signs of weakening U.S. demand emerge, highlighted by a deepening negative Coinbase premium and unusually high trading volumes in spot bitcoin ETFs.
The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index—which reflects the price difference between bitcoin on Coinbase and the global market average—has dropped to -0.15%, its lowest level since the first quarter. A negative premium indicates bitcoin is trading at a discount on the exchange, typically pointing to softer U.S. buying interest, increased selling pressure, and fading institutional participation. The negative trend began after the Oct. 10 liquidation wave and has continued throughout November.
Meanwhile, BTC$90,722.88 is on pace for an 11% weekly loss. The cryptocurrency briefly slid below $81,000 before recovering to the mid-$84,000 range. November’s performance has been even more severe: bitcoin is down 23%, its worst monthly showing since June 2022, when it plunged 38%.
Capitulation Clues Building?
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have also reflected investor caution, recording consistent outflows for most of November.
Read more: Bitcoin ETFs Have Bled a Record $3.79B in November
However, Friday broke the pattern with $238.4 million in inflows—the strongest daily figure since Nov. 11—according to Farside data. It was also a record-setting trading day for the products, generating $11.5 billion in combined volume, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas noted. BlackRock’s IBIT dominated activity with $8 billion in trading.
Balchunas also pointed out that IBIT saw record put-option activity this week, suggesting investors are increasingly hedging long positions rather than exiting entirely. “It gives people a way to stay invested—they can simply hedge with puts,” he said.
With bitcoin now 36% below its October all-time high, Friday’s heavy trading and realized losses may resemble a capitulation-style event, often seen near local market lows. While not conclusive, bitcoin may be attempting to stabilize around the low $80,000 area.
Reinforcing this view, Glassnode reported over $4 billion in realized losses on Friday—the highest since March 2023 during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis—offering another datapoint consistent with capitulation behavior.
