Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has pushed back against a prediction that artificial intelligence could send Bitcoin down by more than 50% over the next two years. Buterin said his current crypto holdings already put about 90% of his net worth on the opposite side of that bet.
Bitcoin was trading just below $80,000 after climbing to a three-month high of $82,500 on September 3. A 50% decline from $80,000 would bring the cryptocurrency down to roughly $40,000.
Liron Shapira, a Silicon Valley investor and host of the Doom Debates podcast, estimates there is a 50% chance Bitcoin could lose more than half its value within two years. He argues that rapid advances in AI could eventually challenge the security and reliability assumptions underlying the Bitcoin network.
Shapira’s concern is that increasingly powerful AI could uncover new ways to attack the technology that protects Bitcoin. His argument focuses on the possibility of AI weakening the security guarantees investors rely on, rather than suggesting that Bitcoin’s cryptography has already been compromised.
The debate highlights two separate risks for the crypto industry: vulnerabilities at the technical level and the market reaction to a perceived security threat. While AI could introduce new challenges, there is currently no indication that Bitcoin’s core cryptography has been broken.
Buterin said he strongly disagrees with Shapira’s outlook. He remains confident in the long-term prospects of cybersecurity and believes Bitcoin can respond to many problems without requiring a broad consensus across the entire community.
The Ethereum co-founder also differentiated between attacks on Bitcoin’s network infrastructure and a fundamental failure of its cryptographic technology. Developers, node operators and mining pools could upgrade their software or infrastructure to address certain network-level threats. Buterin considers the possibility of AI breaking Bitcoin’s hashing algorithms or proof-of-work mechanism to be extremely low.
Rather than making a separate wager, Buterin said his existing crypto portfolio already represents a significant financial bet against Shapira’s prediction. He estimated that around 90% of his net worth is tied to assets that would be affected by the outcome. He also noted that similar concerns could apply to Ethereum because both networks rely on cryptographic security.
Buterin has also highlighted advances in succinct proofs and fully homomorphic encryption during 2026. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s roadmap update on August 10 reportedly placed greater emphasis on quantum-resistant security.
Different Views on AI and Bitcoin
Shapira is not alone in warning that AI could create challenges for Bitcoin, although other analysts focus on different mechanisms.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has warned that AI-related credit stress could trigger a broader market sell-off, potentially sending Bitcoin below $60,000. Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff has taken another approach, arguing that AI could compete with Bitcoin for investment capital, electricity and data-center resources.
| Figure | Prediction | Main Concern |
|---|---|---|
| Liron Shapira | Bitcoin could fall more than 50% within two years | AI could weaken Bitcoin’s expected security guarantees |
| Vitalik Buterin | Rejects the crash scenario | Most network-level problems can be addressed, while breaking Bitcoin’s core systems is unlikely |
| Arthur Hayes | AI-related stress could hurt Bitcoin | Credit problems could trigger a wider market sell-off |
| Peter Schiff | AI could challenge Bitcoin | Both could compete for capital, electricity and computing resources |
The four positions point to different potential risks. Shapira is focused on Bitcoin’s security, Hayes on broader financial-market stress and Schiff on competition for scarce resources. None of these arguments proves that AI will cause a major Bitcoin disruption.
Bitcoin Remains Near Key Resistance
Bitcoin spent the weekend struggling to break above the $80,000-$82,200 resistance area, trading between roughly $79,750 and $80,100 during Saturday’s session.
Meanwhile, wallets holding at least 100 BTC reportedly accumulated around 60,000 BTC in August, while smaller holders sold a similar amount. The activity suggests stronger accumulation among larger holders, although it does not resolve the debate over AI-related risks.
At the center of the disagreement is whether AI could undermine Bitcoin’s security assumptions enough to trigger a major price decline. Shapira’s forecast would put Bitcoin near $40,000 if the asset starts from around $80,000 and loses more than half its value.
For now, the debate remains theoretical. Shapira and Buterin offer sharply different assessments of AI’s potential impact on crypto security, but neither side can establish with certainty what will happen to Bitcoin over the next two years.
