Bitcoin Slips Below $80K Despite $424M ETF Inflows as Traders Prepare for November
Bitcoin fell below $80,000 despite attracting approximately $424 million in inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs over three consecutive sessions. The decline followed the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates, with two officials dissenting in favor of a rate increase.
On October 28, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $137.3 million in net inflows, extending their positive streak to three days. The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate at 3.75%–4%, but the divided decision heightened uncertainty about the next policy move.
Bitcoin initially climbed to $81,788 after the announcement before reversing during Asian trading. Weakness in semiconductor stocks weighed on broader technology markets, dragging BTC down to $79,710 overnight.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading around $79,899, down 1.2% over 24 hours and 4.4% for October. The monthly decline would make October its second consecutive losing month of the same name.
As November approaches, investors are watching U.S. midterm elections, upcoming inflation and employment reports, and expectations surrounding the Fed’s December meeting. Prediction markets have assigned a substantial probability to another rate increase, adding to uncertainty across risk assets.
Bitcoin ETFs Record $424 Million in Three Days
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $424 million between October 26 and October 28, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) accounting for most of the inflows.
According to SoSoValue data, the daily figures were:
- October 26: $110.3 million in inflows, all directed to IBIT.
- October 27: $176 million in net inflows, with none of the 12 funds recording net outflows.
- October 28: $137.3 million in inflows, including $136 million for IBIT and $1.3 million for Bitwise’s BITB.
The recovery followed a difficult session on October 22, when the funds recorded $635.6 million in outflows, their largest single-day withdrawal since June. BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC each lost more than $200 million that day.
October’s cumulative ETF flows were still approximately $202 million negative through Monday. The subsequent inflows reversed the trend, leaving the month with roughly $110 million in net positive flows.
Collectively, the 12 funds held around $104.9 billion in assets, representing approximately 6.4% of Bitcoin’s total value. Since their January 2024 launch, the funds have attracted $57.6 billion in cumulative net inflows. IBIT alone accounted for $66.1 billion in holdings.
Despite the renewed institutional buying, Bitcoin’s decline shows that ETF demand has not been sufficient to offset pressure from macroeconomic uncertainty and weakness in technology stocks.
Federal Reserve Decision Adds Uncertainty to Bitcoin’s Outlook
The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.75%–4%, but the decision exposed differing views among policymakers.
The vote passed 10–2, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack favoring a 0.25-percentage-point rate increase instead.
In its statement, the Fed described economic activity as expanding at a strong pace while acknowledging that inflation remained elevated. Officials indicated that further economic information would help determine the appropriate direction of monetary policy.
Chair Kevin Warsh offered little indication of what might happen in December. He said he did not support forward guidance outside exceptional circumstances or a crisis and rejected suggestions that political considerations influenced the decision ahead of the U.S. midterm elections.
The two dissenting votes strengthened concerns that policymakers could consider additional tightening. The cited Polymarket data placed the probability of a quarter-point December hike at approximately 77%, close to its level before the meeting.
Bitcoin initially responded positively. After trading near $80,860 at 2 p.m. ET, BTC climbed approximately 1.1% to $81,788 over the next two hours.
The rally later reversed as semiconductor stocks came under pressure. Samsung’s chip division missed analyst expectations, and its shares fell more than 5%, weighing on technology stocks across the region.
Bitcoin subsequently dropped to $79,710 by 02:00 UTC. More than $350 million in leveraged cryptocurrency positions were liquidated over 24 hours, adding to the selling pressure.
Bitcoin News: Key Events to Watch in November
The coming weeks could be important for Bitcoin as investors assess whether inflation and labor-market conditions will influence the Federal Reserve’s next decision.
Key dates include:
- October 29: September PCE inflation and third-quarter GDP figures, followed by Coinbase and Strategy earnings after the market closes.
- October 30: Deribit’s monthly options expiry, involving approximately 135,700 BTC in open contracts worth around $10.8 billion.
- November 3: U.S. midterm elections.
- November 6: October employment report, following September’s reported addition of 29,000 jobs.
- November 10: October CPI report, with September inflation previously recorded at 3.7% year over year.
- December 9: The Federal Reserve’s next scheduled interest-rate decision.
These releases could influence expectations for monetary policy and, in turn, investor appetite for risk assets. Higher rates can weigh on Bitcoin by making lower-risk investments more attractive, although market reactions will also depend on how much of the expected policy path is already priced in.
Does November Usually Deliver Bitcoin Gains?
Bitcoin’s reputation for strong November performance is based on a relatively limited historical sample.
According to Binance data, BTC finished higher in only three of the past eight Novembers. Its strongest gains came in 2020 and 2024, when the cryptocurrency advanced 42.8% and 37.2%, respectively. Both rallies followed U.S. presidential elections.
By contrast, Bitcoin declined 36.6% in November 2018 and 16.2% in November 2022, both midterm election years.
However, eight years of data are insufficient to establish a reliable seasonal trend. Both negative midterm Novembers also occurred during broader bear markets, making it difficult to isolate the impact of election timing.
Options markets are not currently signaling expectations for an unusually large price swing. Deribit’s DVOL index, which measures implied volatility over 30 days, stood at 36.5 on Wednesday, slightly below the 37–39 range seen during the previous two weeks.
The historical record therefore provides limited evidence that Bitcoin will necessarily rally in November. Incoming economic data and changes in monetary-policy expectations may prove more influential.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Can BTC Hold $79,221?
Bitcoin is testing a key support zone after slipping below its 50-day exponential moving average.
At approximately $79,899, BTC was trading beneath the 50-day EMA at $80,789. The cryptocurrency had crossed this level three times over the preceding week, reflecting continued uncertainty in the short-term trend.
The October 24 low of $79,221 remains the immediate support level to watch. A sustained break below it could expose Bitcoin to further downside.
Key technical levels include:
- Resistance at $84,898: The October 21 high, where the previous rally stalled.
- Immediate support at $79,221: The October 24 low that has served as the near-term price floor.
- Lower support between $76,264 and $76,476: The September 2 low and the 200-day EMA.
Bitcoin’s longer-term trend remains comparatively stronger. The 200-day EMA has risen from approximately $72,300 in late August to $76,476. The 50-day EMA also moved above the 200-day EMA on September 12, marking the first such crossover since November 2025.
Still, the short-term outlook remains fragile while BTC trades below its 50-day EMA. A sustained recovery above $80,789 could help stabilize prices, while a break below $79,221 could shift attention toward the lower support zone.
Outlook: ETF Buying Faces Pressure From Macro Risks
Bitcoin’s latest ETF inflows suggest that institutional demand has returned following substantial withdrawals earlier in October. However, the renewed buying has not prevented BTC from falling below $80,000.
The Federal Reserve’s divided decision, uncertainty surrounding a potential December rate increase, and weakness in technology stocks continue to influence market sentiment.
Traders will be watching the PCE inflation figures and employment data for clues about the Fed’s next move. Bitcoin’s ability to defend $79,221 will also be important in determining whether the latest decline remains temporary or develops into a deeper correction.
Although November has delivered strong gains in some years, its historical performance offers no guarantee of another rally. For now, Bitcoin’s direction is likely to depend more on economic data, institutional flows, and broader market conditions than on seasonal patterns.
