Bitcoin’s 2026 Decline and 2028 Surge Captured by JPMorgan’s Halving-Focused IBIT Note

JPMorgan Unveils IBIT-Linked Structured Note Tied to Bitcoin’s Halving Cycle

JPMorgan Chase has launched a structured note linked to BlackRock’s IBIT, designed to follow Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle. The product aims at investors looking to benefit from BTC’s historical pattern of post-halving dips followed by rallies.

Filed with regulators this week, the note offers potentially unlimited returns if BTC remains below a set level in 2026 but rallies by the end of 2028. Historically, Bitcoin enters a bear phase about two years after a halving, followed by a bull run in the next cycle. With the last halving in 2024, BTC is expected to decline in 2026 before rebounding in 2028.

If the IBIT ETF hits JPMorgan’s 2026 target, investors earn a guaranteed 16% return. If not, the note remains active until 2028, offering exposure to amplified gains. Surpassing the 2028 target could deliver 1.5 times the initial investment with no upper limit.

The note also provides downside protection: investors recover their principal if IBIT doesn’t drop more than 30%, but losses scale proportionally beyond that, potentially exceeding 40% or even wiping out the investment.

This structured note offers a strategic option for institutional and sophisticated investors to engage with Bitcoin’s halving-driven cycles while managing risk.