Oil prices jumped Monday after renewed U.S.-Iran fighting increased fears of disruptions to global crude supplies, while President Donald Trump again portrayed the conflict as a U.S. victory.
Markets Increase Bets on Fed Rate Hikes
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh traveled together to the G20 meeting in Asheville, North Carolina, over the weekend, a move that may have been intended to project agreement on the broader economic outlook.
The Treasury has spent recent weeks trying to bring down longer-term borrowing costs through public statements. Warsh took a more hawkish stance Friday, saying the Fed still had more work to do to reduce inflation. His comments pushed yields higher across the Treasury curve.
Yields continued rising Monday. The 30-year Treasury yield added 5.2 basis points to 5.26%, while the 10-year yield rose 4.1 basis points to 4.763%, its highest level in three years.
Short-term rate expectations also moved higher. CME FedWatch data showed a 64% probability of a Fed move at the September meeting, compared with 57% Friday and roughly 40% before Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks.
Markets are also pricing in roughly a 90% chance of at least one rate increase by December 2026. The probability of cumulative hikes totaling 75 basis points was close to 10%.
Oil Surges After Iran Strikes
Crude prices accelerated after overnight attacks involving Iran. Trump said Monday that Iran was “officially a failed nation” in a Truth Social post, citing the country’s military, economic and political difficulties.
The comments followed another night of attacks and continued Trump claims that the U.S. has prevailed in the conflict.
Brent crude rose 5.9% to $91.18 a barrel, while WTI climbed 3.7% to $86.47. WTI futures were more than 3% higher at one point, with the front-month contract near $86.63.
The renewed conflict also raised concerns about oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, supporting crude prices.
Bitcoin remained comparatively stable, trading near $78,400 and up around 1% from midnight levels.
Strategy Returns to Bitcoin Buying
Strategy purchased bitcoin for the first time since late June, adding 4,603 BTC for approximately $369.7 million last week.
The company paid an average of $80,318 per bitcoin. The acquisition was financed through about $602.8 million in common-stock sales, while $151.8 million was used to repurchase STRC preferred shares and additional funds were added to cash reserves.
Strategy now holds 845,050 BTC purchased for approximately $63.73 billion, putting its average acquisition cost at about $75,412 per bitcoin.
MSTR shares were up 1.65% in premarket trading as BTC remained around $78,400.
Ether Prints a Golden Cross
Ether’s daily chart has formed a golden cross, a technical indicator commonly interpreted as a bullish signal for longer-term momentum.
The pattern develops when the 50-day simple moving average moves above the 200-day average. While traders often view the formation as evidence that momentum is improving, it does not guarantee further price gains.
BlackRock’s BUIDL Reclaims Top Spot
BlackRock’s BUIDL has returned to the top position among tokenized U.S. Treasury funds, with about $2.8 billion in assets, according to Token Terminal. Circle’s USYC has a similar amount, leaving the two effectively tied based on rounded figures.
Tokenized Treasury funds invest in short-term U.S. government debt and issue blockchain-based tokens representing ownership. The products allow crypto businesses to hold yield-generating assets without moving funds off-chain. Securitize provides tokenization and transfer-agent services for BUIDL.
BUIDL previously exceeded $3 billion in assets in early 2025 before losing more than $1 billion. It later recovered, fell toward $1.5 billion around mid-2026 and then rebounded through August.
USYC followed a stronger upward trajectory and overtook BUIDL earlier this year.
The tokenized Treasury sector has expanded more than 15,000% since 2024 and has remained around $15 billion despite the crypto market’s recent weakness. Ondo’s USDY and Franklin Templeton’s iBENJI rank behind the leaders at about $2.1 billion and $1.7 billion.
Yen Weakness Adds Another Risk
Bessent said recent moves in the Japanese yen remained manageable and did not require coordinated intervention by Washington and Tokyo.
He had previously warned that an unstable yen market could spill over into higher U.S. interest rates.
The yen is widely used to fund investments in U.S. equities and Treasury securities. A sharp currency move could therefore push bond yields higher, tighten financial conditions and weigh on risk assets such as bitcoin.
Bitcoin traded below $78,000 during Asian hours Monday, down less than 1% over 24 hours but still about 1% higher over the week.
Solana and Dogecoin fell around 3% each, while Hyperliquid and XRP also declined. Ether, BNB, Zcash and Tron were broadly flat.
On a weekly basis, Solana remained up about 8%, while Dogecoin had lost roughly 10%.
The yen moved above 160 per dollar in Tokyo, a level that has attracted increasing attention from currency traders. Some analysts see the risk of intervention rising around 161, followed by the 162-163 area.
The dollar’s rally Friday was driven by expectations of tighter U.S. monetary policy following Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks. The resulting shift in rate pricing contributed to institutional bitcoin ETF outflows during May and June.
With Monday marking the final trading session of August, investors are awaiting the month’s final bitcoin ETF flow data. The figures should show whether the recent eight-day inflow streak held despite the renewed shift toward higher interest-rate expectations.
