Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $424 million in cumulative inflows over three trading days, signaling renewed institutional interest. However, the fresh demand failed to prevent BTC from slipping below $80,000 after the Federal Reserve delivered a divided decision to keep interest rates unchanged. Bitcoin briefly rallied following the announcement before reversing direction as weakness across technology stocks triggered additional selling.
On Wednesday, October 28, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $137.3 million, extending their positive inflow streak to three consecutive sessions. The Federal Reserve simultaneously maintained its benchmark interest rate between 3.75% and 4%, although two policymakers disagreed with the decision and supported a rate increase.
Bitcoin initially climbed to $81,788 after the announcement but subsequently declined to $79,710 during overnight trading. The reversal came as losses in semiconductor stocks weighed on broader technology markets and spilled over into cryptocurrencies.
BTC is currently trading around $79,899, reflecting a 1.2% decline over 24 hours and a 4.4% loss for October. If the trend continues, October could become Bitcoin’s second consecutive month of negative returns.
As November approaches, investors are preparing for several potential market-moving developments, including U.S. midterm elections, new inflation and employment figures, and the possibility of another Federal Reserve rate increase in December. Prediction markets currently indicate a 79% probability of a December hike.
Bitcoin ETF Inflows Recover With $424 Million in Fresh Capital
Institutional demand for Bitcoin has improved over the past three trading sessions, with U.S. spot ETFs collectively attracting approximately $424 million. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) accounted for nearly all the latest investment activity.
SoSoValue’s daily data shows the following breakdown:
- October 26: Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $110.3 million in inflows, with the entire amount directed toward BlackRock’s IBIT.
- October 27: Daily inflows increased to $176 million, and none of the 12 available funds registered withdrawals.
- October 28: Another $137.3 million entered the funds, including $136 million for IBIT and $1.3 million for Bitwise’s BITB.
The latest inflows represent a recovery from the significant withdrawals recorded earlier in October. On October 22, investors pulled approximately $635.6 million from spot Bitcoin ETFs in a single session, marking their largest daily outflow since June.
BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC were among the hardest-hit products, each experiencing withdrawals exceeding $200 million.
By October 26, monthly ETF flows remained approximately $202 million negative. However, the subsequent two sessions reversed the trend, bringing October’s cumulative balance to roughly $110 million in positive territory.
Across all 12 funds, total assets under management have reached approximately $104.9 billion, representing around 6.4% of Bitcoin’s market value. Since their launch in January 2024, these investment products have generated $57.6 billion in cumulative net inflows.
BlackRock’s IBIT continues to dominate the market, with approximately $66.1 billion in assets.
Fed’s Divided Rate Decision Sends Bitcoin Back Below $80,000
The Federal Reserve maintained its existing interest rate range, but the decision exposed disagreements among policymakers about whether monetary conditions should become tighter.
The announcement passed with a 10–2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack opposed the decision, favoring a 25-basis-point rate increase instead.
The Fed’s statement described economic activity as expanding at a strong pace while acknowledging that inflation remained above acceptable levels. Policymakers also indicated that future decisions would depend on additional economic information.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh offered little guidance about the central bank’s December meeting. During his press conference, he said forward guidance was unnecessary outside exceptional circumstances or a crisis. He also rejected claims that political considerations had influenced the decision, despite the announcement arriving just six days before the U.S. midterm elections.
The two dissenting votes reinforced expectations that another rate increase could remain on the table. Polymarket’s December contract placed the probability of a quarter-point hike at approximately 77%, broadly consistent with expectations before the meeting.
Bitcoin’s initial reaction was positive. BTC traded around $80,860 at 2 p.m. ET before advancing approximately 1.1% to $81,788 over the following two hours.
However, the rally quickly lost momentum during Asian trading. Samsung’s semiconductor division reported weaker-than-expected results, sending its shares down more than 5% and putting additional pressure on technology stocks.
Bitcoin followed the broader market lower, reaching $79,710 by 02:00 UTC. At the same time, leveraged cryptocurrency liquidations exceeded $350 million over a 24-hour period.
November Bitcoin Outlook: Economic Reports and Elections in Focus
Bitcoin investors are entering November with several important economic and political events approaching. These developments could influence market sentiment and shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision.
The upcoming schedule includes:
- October 29: September’s PCE inflation figures and third-quarter GDP data are due at 8:30 a.m. ET. Coinbase and Strategy are also scheduled to release earnings after market hours.
- October 30: Deribit’s monthly Bitcoin options expiry will involve approximately 135,700 BTC in outstanding contracts, valued at around $10.8 billion.
- November 3: U.S. midterm elections could introduce additional uncertainty across financial markets.
- November 6: The October employment report will offer fresh insight into labor market conditions following September’s addition of 29,000 jobs.
- November 10: October’s CPI report is scheduled for release. The previous report showed annual inflation of 3.7% in September.
- December 9: The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its next interest rate decision.
November is traditionally associated with strong Bitcoin performance, but historical returns suggest that gains are far from guaranteed.
According to Binance data, Bitcoin advanced in only three of the previous eight Novembers. The strongest monthly performances occurred in 2020 and 2024, when BTC gained 42.8% and 37.2%, respectively. Both rallies followed presidential election periods.
The results were considerably weaker during the two midterm election years. Bitcoin declined 36.6% in November 2018 and another 16.2% in November 2022.
Nevertheless, the historical sample covers only eight years, and both negative November performances coincided with broader cryptocurrency bear markets.
Options traders are also showing relatively restrained expectations for the coming weeks. Deribit’s DVOL index, which measures the 30-day implied volatility of Bitcoin options, stood at 36.5 on Wednesday. This was slightly below the 37–39 range recorded during the preceding two weeks.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: $79,221 Becomes a Key Support Level
Bitcoin’s short-term technical structure remains under pressure as the cryptocurrency struggles to reclaim its 50-day exponential moving average.
BTC is trading near $79,899 on Binance, below its 50-day EMA at $80,789. The price has crossed this indicator three times over the past week, suggesting that neither buyers nor sellers have established clear control.
The October 24 low of $79,221 remains the immediate support level that bulls need to defend to prevent another downward move.
On a longer timeframe, Bitcoin’s technical position appears more stable. Its 200-day EMA has gradually advanced from approximately $72,300 in late August to $76,476. The 50-day EMA also moved above the 200-day EMA on September 12, marking the first bullish crossover of this kind since November 2025.
The important price levels to monitor are:
- $84,898 resistance: The October 21 peak represents a major obstacle for buyers attempting to restart the previous rally.
- $79,221 support: The October 24 low is the immediate downside level that traders are watching.
- $76,264–$76,476 support zone: This area combines the September 2 low with the current 200-day EMA.
Although the recent ETF inflows indicate renewed institutional buying, Bitcoin’s recovery remains vulnerable to changing interest rate expectations and weakness in technology stocks.
The next major catalysts will be the latest PCE inflation figures and the November 6 employment report. Whether BTC can maintain support above $79,221 and recover the $80,789 50-day EMA could determine how the cryptocurrency enters November.
