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Bitcoin Retreat Repeats April Pattern, Putting 2025 Buyers Underwater

Bitcoin Drops Below Key 2025 Cost Basis Amid Extended Correction

Bitcoin (BTC $84,408.02) has slipped below crucial 2025 cost basis levels as its ongoing correction deepens. The cryptocurrency is down 30% from its October all-time high of $126,250 and has fallen 17% in November, marking the joint weakest month of 2025 and its poorest monthly performance since June 2022.

After dropping below $90,000 early Tuesday, Bitcoin has now been in its current correction for 43 days, matching the magnitude of the April 2025 drawdown, when prices fell from $109,000 to $76,000. That earlier correction, however, lasted roughly 80 days—nearly twice as long.

The decline has pushed Bitcoin below the 2025 realized price of $103,227, leaving the average 2025 buyer with a 13% unrealized loss. The realized price reflects the average acquisition cost of coins and signals that many holders are now underwater.

Historically, dips below the annual realized price have often presented buying opportunities. Since the 2023 cycle began, this level has generally acted as support, with exceptions in March 2023 during the Silicon Valley Bank collapse and August 2024 amid the Yen carry trade episode, according to Glassnode data.