Bitcoin’s Realized Cap Surpasses $1.125 Trillion, Raising Questions About Four-Year Cycle
Bitcoin’s realized capitalization has reached a new all-time high of $1.125 trillion, indicating the crypto may still be in a bull market despite a nearly 40% decline over the past 10 weeks.
Unlike total market capitalization, realized cap values each bitcoin at the price it last moved, highlighting actual capital inflows rather than speculative trading activity. Glassnode data shows the metric continued to climb even during the 36% correction from October’s record high, though it has recently stabilized around $1.125 trillion. A similar pause occurred in April 2025 during the tariff-driven selloff, when bitcoin briefly touched $76,000 before climbing to new highs.
During the 2022 bear market, realized cap dropped from roughly $470 billion to $385 billion as investors sold at lower cost bases—a trend not seen in the current pullback.
Four-Year Cycle in Question
Andre Dragosch, European head of research at Bitwise, told CoinDesk that bitcoin could defy the traditional four-year cycle, with potential upside surprises in 2026. He cited resilient global growth, ongoing rate cuts, and a steepening yield curve—all factors that could weaken the U.S. dollar, historically supportive for bitcoin.
“Bitcoin is materially underpricing the current macro backdrop, to a degree last seen during the Covid recession and the FTX collapse, despite no signs of a U.S. recession and evidence of accelerating growth,” Dragosch said.
