Bitcoin news: On-chain analyst Willy Woo has released 10,000 simulated Bitcoin price scenarios, with the median projection pointing to a potential peak of $413,000 in December 2028. The model accounts for Bitcoin’s declining returns across successive market cycles, while also highlighting the limitations of relying on historical data to estimate future prices.
Woo shared the simulations on Monday, October 26, using a random-walk model trained on Bitcoin’s historical performance. The framework incorporates diminishing returns from one cycle to the next to estimate potential future market highs and lows. Its median outcome places Bitcoin’s next major peak at $413,000 by the end of 2028.
However, Woo cautioned against interpreting the result as a firm forecast. He described the projection as optimistic and pointed to the range between approximately the 28th and 50th percentiles as a more reasonable scenario, suggesting a possible peak between $241,000 and $413,000. He stressed that the figures represent simulated outcomes rather than his personal prediction.
With Bitcoin trading at $79,770, the analysis raises questions about the assumptions behind the model, the likelihood of its projected targets, and the market forces it does not capture.
Bitcoin’s Diminishing Returns Could Shape Its Next Cycle
The concept of diminishing returns suggests that Bitcoin generates smaller percentage gains as its market capitalization expands. As the asset becomes larger, progressively more capital is required to produce the same proportional price increase.
Historical price movements illustrate this trend. Bitcoin climbed from approximately $1,150 in 2013 to nearly $20,000 in late 2017, marking an increase of around 17 times. Its 2021 peak of $69,000 represented roughly 3.5 times the previous cycle’s high. By October 2025, Bitcoin had reached a record of $126,080, approximately 1.8 times its 2021 peak.
Woo’s power-law framework attempts to model this gradual decline in returns. Rather than treating every price movement as an independent random event, it assumes that gains diminish over time. The parameter “c=0.45” in the chart’s subtitle determines how quickly those returns decrease.
The model also uses a phase-conditioned approach, meaning simulated daily price movements reflect Bitcoin’s position within its market cycle. These phases include rallies, market tops, bear markets, and recoveries. This structure allows the 10,000 simulations to retain Bitcoin’s characteristic four-year cycle pattern.
Even with diminishing returns built into the framework, the median estimate remains ambitious. A $413,000 peak would put Bitcoin at approximately 3.3 times its October 2025 record, exceeding the relative gain of the previous cycle. The lower estimate of $241,000 would represent about 1.9 times the previous high, much closer to the 1.8-fold increase recorded between the 2021 and 2025 peaks.
What Bitcoin Price Factors Does the Model Miss?
Woo’s simulations offer a range of possible outcomes, but their usefulness depends on the assumptions underlying them. A model trained on historical prices assumes that future Bitcoin behavior will broadly resemble past cycles, including similar fluctuations and a recurring four-year pattern.
However, the market has changed significantly, and several factors could produce outcomes that differ from the simulated trajectories.
Institutional investment: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs hold approximately $102.8 billion in Bitcoin, while Strategy owns 848,517 BTC. These major institutional investment vehicles were absent from earlier cycles, and their capital flows may not align with Bitcoin’s halving schedule.
Federal Reserve policy and liquidity: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in September and is scheduled to announce its next decision on Wednesday. Changes in borrowing costs, liquidity, and investor risk appetite could influence Bitcoin’s performance in ways that historical price patterns alone cannot fully capture.
Bitcoin’s remaining supply: Approximately 20.1 million of Bitcoin’s maximum supply of 21 million coins have already been mined. Consequently, future halvings will reduce new issuance by smaller absolute amounts, potentially altering the market impact of supply reductions.
Regulatory and technological uncertainty: Changes in cryptocurrency regulation, competition across the digital asset sector, and emerging threats such as quantum computing could influence investor sentiment and Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. These developments fall outside a model primarily based on historical price data.
A limited number of market cycles: Bitcoin has experienced only four complete market cycles. Although Woo’s model generates 10,000 simulated paths, those scenarios are still derived from a relatively small historical sample. A large number of simulations does not eliminate the uncertainty associated with limited real-world data.
For these reasons, the projected $413,000 peak should be viewed as one possible outcome rather than a guaranteed target. The model illustrates how Bitcoin might perform under a specific set of historical assumptions, but it cannot reliably determine the timing or exact price of the next market top.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Support and Resistance Levels
Bitcoin is trading at $79,770, down 2.1% over the past seven days and approximately 36.7% below its October 2025 all-time high. The cryptocurrency remains below its 50-day exponential moving average at $80,765, indicating that it has yet to reclaim this important short-term technical level.
Buyers defended the $79,221 support level on Saturday and again on Monday, making it a key area to monitor during the current consolidation.
On the upside, resistance sits at $81,480, where previous recovery attempts stalled. A sustained move above this level could open the way toward the next resistance near $82,850.
If selling pressure intensifies, $79,221 remains the immediate support to watch. A breakdown below this level could expose Bitcoin to further downside toward its 200-day EMA at $76,382.
For traders, the immediate focus is whether Bitcoin can hold support and recover above its short-term moving average. Meanwhile, Woo’s long-term simulations offer a framework for assessing how diminishing returns could influence Bitcoin’s next major cycle, while underscoring the uncertainty involved in projecting prices several years ahead.
