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As $13.3B in BTC Options Near Expiration, Bitcoin Remains Well Under Its Max-Pain Threshold

Bitcoin heads into Friday’s monthly options expiry under renewed pressure after a sharp sell-off that pushed prices down to $81,000 before recovering to around $87,000. The decline has refocused attention on the options market, where traders are increasingly seeking downside protection.

According to Deribit, 153,778 BTC in options are set to expire this week, including 92,692 BTC in calls and 61,086 BTC in puts, with a combined notional value of roughly $13.3 billion. The put-call ratio of 0.66 shows calls still outnumber puts, but downside hedges are gaining ground.

Calls give holders the right to buy BTC at a set strike and reflect bullish sentiment, while puts grant the right to sell, often serving as insurance against further declines.

The max pain level sits at $102,000, about 17% above spot, highlighting the gap between current prices and the strike level where option sellers would experience minimal losses. Roughly $3.4 billion (26%) of contracts are in the money, while $10 billion (74%) remain out of the money, showing traders are largely positioned for moves outside the current range.

Open interest is heaviest at the $80,000 put strike, representing the largest bearish cluster. On the upside, calls concentrate above $120,000, far from being exercised with BTC trading well below those levels.

With sentiment still fragile and much of the open interest skewed toward out-of-the-money positions, Bitcoin may experience heightened volatility into Friday’s expiry as market makers adjust hedging flows around key strikes.