Some analysts have linked recent Bitcoin selling to investors raising liquidity ahead of major IPOs such as SpaceX and Anthropic, but Sygnum CIO Fabian Dori argues the data does not support that explanation.
Bitcoin ETFs have recorded roughly $5.75 billion in outflows since mid-May, fueling speculation that institutional investors are reducing exposure to crypto in anticipation of a wave of high-profile listings led by SpaceX.
The pressure contributed to Bitcoin slipping below $60,000 in early June—its weakest level since 2026 and more than 50% below its peak near $125,000 last October. The move has been widely interpreted as a rotation of capital from crypto into IPO-related opportunities.
Dori rejects that view.
“The ETF outflows are real,” he told CoinDesk, “but the data does not support the idea that Bitcoin weakness is being driven by the SpaceX IPO.”
He argues that if investors were systematically selling Bitcoin to fund IPO allocations, it would likely be reflected in abnormal exchange outflows and a decline in stablecoin supply as capital exited the crypto ecosystem. Neither of those signals is currently visible.
Exchange flows remain broadly in line with historical norms, while stablecoin market capitalization has shown little meaningful contraction. Meanwhile, higher-risk segments of crypto continue to attract inflows, which would be inconsistent with a broad-based exit from the asset class.
Dori instead points to derivatives markets as a more plausible driver.
He highlights a drop in CME Bitcoin futures open interest alongside ETF redemptions, suggesting that much of the selling may be linked to the unwinding of cash-and-carry arbitrage trades rather than capital rotating into equities.
In this strategy, investors buy spot Bitcoin—often through ETFs—while simultaneously shorting futures to capture the spread between the two. When that premium narrows or funding conditions weaken, the position is closed, resulting in ETF outflows even without a bearish shift in sentiment.
“Open interest and funding rates moved very positively together over the same period,” Dori said, noting that this pattern is consistent with arbitrage unwinding rather than a structural exit from Bitcoin exposure.
