A large options trade executed Monday signals that at least one major market participant is positioning for a controlled Bitcoin rally into the end of the year—strong enough to push the cryptocurrency back above $100,000, but not toward new record highs.
Bitcoin BTC$90,772.41 has climbed back to around $88,000 after last week’s drop toward $80,000, helped by shifting expectations for a December Fed rate cut. Even with improving sentiment, spot ETF flows have yet to reflect renewed confidence. Data from SoSoValue shows the 11 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $151 million in net outflows on Monday.
Still, a block trader placed a sizable 20,000-BTC call condor—a $1.76 billion notional position—targeting a moderate and orderly move higher. Deribit reported on X that the trader lifted a “long-dated 100k/106k/112k/118k call condor for Dec ’25, signaling a structured bullish view that expects BTC to reach the $100K–$118K zone without an explosive breakout.”
The strategy combines four call options with the same expiration but different strikes: long at $100K, short at $106K and $112K, and long at $118K. The highest payoff occurs if Bitcoin ends the year between $106,000 and $112,000, implying confidence in continued upside but capped expectations beyond $118,000. The structure also indicates the trader does not expect a run to new all-time highs above $126,000.
Block trades—large, privately negotiated transactions executed off the public order book—are often used by institutional investors to take major positions discreetly. Monday’s substantial condor trade highlights how sophisticated players are now making targeted bets not just on Bitcoin’s direction, but on the specific range they expect the rally to land in.
