10x Research Sees Short Strangle as Best Play Amid Bitcoin’s Low-Volatility Regime
Bitcoin (BTC) has held within a narrow trading range through August, underscoring a muted volatility backdrop that analysts expect to persist in the near term. Against this setup, 10x Research again recommends a short strangle strategy for September.
“With BTC hovering near $113,000 and an expected range between $95,000 and $125,000, selling an out-of-the-money put near $95,000 alongside a call around $125,000 allows traders to capture premium in a stable market,” said Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, in a client note Thursday.
The strategy, which involves selling both upside and downside options, profits if prices remain contained within the defined band, as option premiums decay. The firm highlighted that implied volatility remains elevated relative to realized levels, suggesting the options market continues to overprice risk.
Thielen noted that the implied volatility term structure points to continued calm. “The market is unlikely to deliver outsized moves in the near run,” he said.
10x’s August short strangle trade — involving a $105,000 put and a $130,000 call — generated a 3.5% yield.
However, the firm cautioned that short strangles expose traders to sharp losses if volatility suddenly spikes. Constant monitoring of positions and market conditions remains critical to managing risk effectively.
