Bitcoin Faces Strong Resistance as $100K Retest Looms; XRP, Ether, and Solana Show Diverging Technical Patterns
Bitcoin’s recent rally may be losing steam, with multiple technical indicators pointing toward a potential downside break. While altcoins like XRP and Solana are showing mixed signals, momentum across the broader crypto market appears to be weakening.
Bitcoin (BTC): Bull Run Falters at Macro Trendline
Bitcoin’s sustained climb is stalling at a critical long-term resistance level — the trendline connecting the 2017 and 2021 bull market peaks. Despite earlier attempts, bulls have failed to establish a solid breakout.
- The weekly MACD histogram remains in positive territory but has dropped considerably since its December 2024 high.
- The 14-week RSI has broken below its ascending trendline from March and continues to print lower highs, signaling exhaustion.
Short-term price action has also turned negative. The three-line break chart on the daily timeframe has confirmed a bearish reversal, printing three consecutive red bars — a sign that sellers are now in control.
Without a move above $122,056, the market may head lower. A failure to hold support at $111,965 could open the door for a decline toward $100,000.
Key Levels:
- Resistance: $120,000, $122,056, $123,181
- Support: $111,965, $112,301 (50-day SMA), $100,000
XRP: Testing Downtrend, But Momentum Lacks Follow-Through
XRP is attempting to break out of its recent corrective channel, but the rally has so far struggled to gather strength. Price action remains constrained by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, while multiple moving averages continue to suggest downside risk.
- Both the 5- and 10-day SMAs are sloping downward.
- On shorter timeframes, the 50-, 100-, and 200-hour SMAs remain in a bearish alignment.
A close above $3.00 could offer some relief, but bulls would need to reclaim the $3.33 level from July 28 to reverse the broader trend.
Key Levels:
- Resistance: $3.33, $3.65, $4.00
- Support: $2.72, $2.65, $2.58
Ethereum (ETH): Bearish Weekly Close Signals More Downside
Ether dropped nearly 10% last week, forming a bearish outside week — a pattern that typically signals a major shift in momentum in favor of sellers.
- On the daily chart, a bearish crossover between the 5- and 10-day SMAs confirms short-term trend weakness.
- The three-line break chart has printed two red candles, reinforcing the reversal.
Although a minor bounce has occurred, the broader setup remains bearish unless ETH can break through the $4,000 resistance zone.
Key Levels:
- Resistance: $3,941, $4,000, $4,100
- Support: $3,355, $3,000, $2,879
Solana (SOL): Holding Key Fib Level as Golden Cross Approaches
Solana has managed to hold above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, a widely watched support zone that often signals continuation in bullish trends.
A golden cross — when the 50-day SMA moves above the 200-day SMA — appears imminent, potentially validating a longer-term bullish trend. Still, near-term weakness persists.
- The 5- and 10-day SMAs continue to trend lower, indicating that short-term momentum hasn’t yet flipped positive.
Key Levels:
- Resistance: $175, $187, $200
- Support: $156, $145, $126
Market Outlook
Bitcoin’s inability to push through macro resistance, combined with declining momentum indicators, suggests the risk of a retest toward $100,000 is increasing. While Solana shows some resilience, Ethereum and XRP face significant technical hurdles.
A sustained rebound will likely require BTC to reclaim the $122K level and broader sentiment to shift decisively risk-on.
