BNB suffered a sharp 8.7% decline within an hour on Thursday after the reported $6.36 billion Binance hack triggered widespread selling pressure. The token has since struggled to recover, falling behind Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies as futures traders increasingly position for further downside. Attention is now turning to whether BNB can maintain support around its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $692.
On October 29, BNB dropped from $744.90 to approximately $680 in just one hour following the reported security breach involving Binance. The incident, which allegedly resulted in around $6.36 billion in stolen funds, was described as the largest cryptocurrency theft on record.
Although BNB managed to recover some of its losses, its rebound has been weaker than that of other leading digital assets. The token is trading near $702, down 6.2% over the past 24 hours. Its market capitalization stands at approximately $92.4 billion, while its current valuation remains 48.7% below its October 2025 peak of $1,370.
The derivatives market is also reflecting growing caution. BNB perpetual futures funding rates have moved into negative territory, indicating that traders holding short positions are paying those betting on higher prices.
Why Is BNB Underperforming Bitcoin After the Binance Hack?
BNB’s direct connection to Binance is a major reason behind its relatively weak performance. As the exchange’s native cryptocurrency, BNB is particularly sensitive to developments affecting the platform.
Since Thursday’s 20:00 UTC price, BNB has declined 5.6%, recording larger losses than Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP and Dogecoin.
However, the reported attack did not directly target the BNB Chain. TRM Labs identified ten blockchains involved in the movement of funds from compromised Binance wallets, including Ethereum and Polygon. BNB Chain was not among the networks listed in its analysis.
Instead, market participants appear to be responding to the potential consequences for Binance itself. Concerns surrounding the exchange’s security, financial exposure and ability to manage the incident have placed additional pressure on its associated token.
Zeus Research analyst Dominick John noted that the exploit had accelerated broader market selling, with BNB experiencing the strongest impact. Laevitas’ Rick Maeda offered a less bearish assessment, describing the token’s decline as relatively modest given the potential scale of the exchange theft.
BNB Futures Market Shows Increasing Short Activity
Derivatives data from OKX indicates that bearish sentiment has strengthened following the incident. Three developments stand out.
First, BNB perpetual futures funding rates turned negative. The rate moved from +0.01% before the hack to -0.0266% around midnight and -0.0434% by 08:00 UTC. This means short sellers are now paying funding fees to long traders. Bitcoin’s funding rate, in comparison, remained positive throughout the same period.
Second, BNB futures open interest increased by approximately 20%, climbing from $54.8 million to $66 million as market participants established new positions following the price decline.
Third, the number of accounts holding long positions continues to exceed short accounts. The long-to-short ratio increased to 2.79 from 2.66 before the incident.
Together, these figures suggest that smaller traders are attempting to capitalize on lower prices, while bearish participants are building short exposure.
This positioning could create significant volatility. If BNB rebounds, short sellers may be forced to close their positions, potentially accelerating upward momentum. However, another decline could expose the growing number of long-position holders to further liquidations.
BNB’s Previous Binance Hack Recoveries Offer Historical Context
Binance has experienced major security incidents before, and BNB’s historical price performance provides some context for the current sell-off.
During both previous incidents, the token initially experienced additional downside before recovering within approximately one month.
- May 2019 Binance hack: Hackers stole 7,000 BTC from a Binance hot wallet on May 7. BNB subsequently declined 17.5% from its pre-incident closing price, reaching $18.30 three days later. Within a month, however, the token had recovered to trade 39.2% higher.
- October 2022 BNB Chain exploit: An attacker exploited a bridge vulnerability to create 2 million BNB tokens worth approximately $570 million. The cryptocurrency eventually bottomed at $256.80 one week after the incident, down 12.7% from its pre-exploit closing price. Thirty days later, BNB was trading 20.5% higher.
The latest incident has pushed BNB approximately 8.7% below its pre-hack price at its lowest point so far. Historical comparisons suggest that further weakness cannot be ruled out before a meaningful recovery develops.
Some investors have drawn comparisons with FTX’s FTT token, which collapsed almost entirely following the exchange’s failure in November 2022. However, the circumstances are considerably different.
FTX had misused customer funds and lacked the resources to meet its repayment obligations. Binance has stated that it will absorb the losses associated with the reported breach. Meanwhile, Tether, Circle and other entities reportedly froze around $2.7 billion of the stolen assets within hours.
Despite these assurances, uncertainty surrounding Binance’s financial response remains. The exchange has yet to disclose precisely how it will finance the compensation, and withdrawals remain suspended pending the reopening it expected within 48 hours of its Friday morning update.
BNB Price Prediction: Will the $692 Support Level Hold?
BNB is currently testing an important long-term technical indicator, with its 200-day EMA emerging as a key level for determining the next price direction.
The cryptocurrency closed Thursday at $698.46, narrowly above its 200-day EMA at $692.46. During the initial sell-off, BNB briefly dropped below this indicator after touching $680 before recovering.
The 50-day EMA, currently positioned at $733.06, represents the next major resistance area that buyers would need to reclaim to strengthen the recovery outlook.
The broader four-month chart also shows that BNB has returned to a price region last seen in late August. During that period, the token consolidated between $674.60 and $726 for approximately two weeks before breaking out in early September.
That upward move eventually pushed BNB to $809.99 on October 5. Thursday’s sharp correction has now erased the entire advance.
For traders, the $692 area remains an important support threshold. Holding above the 200-day EMA could encourage buyers to return and help stabilize the market. A sustained move below it, however, would increase the possibility of another decline toward $674.60.
Ultimately, Binance’s response to the security incident could determine BNB’s near-term direction more than technical signals.
If withdrawals resume without complications, improving confidence could trigger a recovery and force short sellers to reconsider their positions. Conversely, additional withdrawal delays or concerns that Binance could sell BNB to cover the reported losses may intensify bearish pressure, putting the $674.60 support level at risk.
