Galaxy Digital believes Bitcoin may be approaching another upward move, arguing that improving technical indicators, continued buying through spot ETFs, and rising U.S. government debt strengthen the case for accumulating BTC at current prices.
Bitcoin’s recent rally has slowed, with the cryptocurrency hovering around $80,000 in recent weeks. The lack of momentum has fueled concerns among bearish traders that prices could face another significant decline.
Galaxy takes a different view, maintaining that Bitcoin’s long-term outlook remains positive and that the current period could offer investors an opportunity to build their holdings.
“We think the bear market ended in June and that bitcoin is in the accumulation phase that has preceded every prior advance,” Alex Thorn, the firm’s head of firmwide research, wrote in a report titled “Why now is the time to add and hold BTC.”
Founded in 2018 by billionaire Mike Novogratz, Galaxy Digital operates in financial services and digital asset infrastructure. The company is headquartered in New York City and trades on Nasdaq under the symbol GLXY.
Thorn said Bitcoin’s downturn likely ended in June, when the price dropped below $58,000. He pointed to stronger technical patterns, declining selling pressure, and growing fiscal challenges in the United States as reasons to consider accumulating the cryptocurrency.
According to Galaxy, Bitcoin’s current consolidation resembles previous accumulation periods that eventually led to further price gains.
Bitcoin’s Technical Recovery Strengthens Galaxy’s Case
Bitcoin was trading near $80,000 when Galaxy published its analysis, representing an increase of about 38% from June lows below $58,000. Despite that recovery, BTC remained roughly 35% below its all-time high above $126,000. A return to that peak would require a rally of approximately 53%.
Thorn highlighted Bitcoin’s move back above its 50-week moving average after spending 44 weeks below it. Five consecutive weekly closes above the indicator have reinforced his belief that the market may have already established a bottom.
Investor positioning provides another reason for optimism. Asset managers’ net long exposure through CME Bitcoin futures had dropped 57% from the week of Bitcoin’s record high. Several large trading firms also reduced their holdings in spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Thorn interprets these developments as evidence that short-term speculative capital has exited the market, potentially leaving behind a more stable base of investors.
“The fast money has left, the base stayed, and everything else is priced for perfection,” he said.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Continue to Accumulate BTC
While Bitcoin’s price action has weakened, some investors have continued buying during market pullbacks.
Galaxy said spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulated around 87,000 BTC after the June low. The firm views these inflows as a sign of renewed demand for direct Bitcoin exposure, particularly as arbitrage-related trading activity has diminished.
Macroeconomic conditions could also support the cryptocurrency’s longer-term appeal. Galaxy pointed to rising U.S. government debt, persistent budget deficits, and increasing interest expenses as factors that may strengthen demand for an asset with a predetermined supply.
Thorn also observed that investor interest has shifted toward stablecoins and tokenization while enthusiasm for Bitcoin has faded. In his view, this combination resembles market sentiment seen near previous Bitcoin bottoms.
Galaxy Identifies Key Risks to Its Bullish Thesis
Galaxy acknowledged that its outlook could be challenged by a broader financial market decline, disruption caused by artificial intelligence, or developments in quantum computing that raise concerns about Bitcoin’s security.
The firm identified $76,540 as an important technical threshold. A weekly close below that level, followed by an inability to recover within a month, would weaken its argument that Bitcoin has already reached a market bottom.
Even with those risks, Galaxy believes the combination of improving technical signals, ETF accumulation, and mounting U.S. fiscal pressures supports a potential recovery toward Bitcoin’s previous record high.
