Bitcoin is holding close to $78,000 even as markets turn more defensive following fresh U.S.-Iran military escalation. The strikes pushed crude prices higher and pressured equities, but bitcoin has remained comparatively stable.
BTC has gained more than 24% during August, putting it on pace for its strongest monthly performance since 2017 and its biggest monthly increase since November 2024. Over the last 24 hours, bitcoin rose about 0.5%, while the broader CoinDesk 20 index declined 0.75%.
Asian stock markets delivered mixed results. Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.14%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was nearly flat and South Korea’s KOSPI gained 0.46%. Meanwhile, DAX and U.S. equity futures pointed toward lower openings.
Crude oil posted the clearest reaction to the geopolitical developments. Brent crude moved above $90 a barrel after U.S. forces struck Iranian rocket launchers, followed by Iranian attacks on military facilities. Gold, in contrast, fell to roughly $4,440 an ounce.
The rise in energy prices is adding to inflation concerns after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech increased market expectations for a September rate hike to 58%.
Derivatives Show Mixed Signals
Trading activity jumps without a major increase in open interest:
Crypto trading volume over the past 24 hours more than doubled to about $183 billion, while open interest remained near $136 billion. The balanced taker ratio between longs and shorts suggests heavier trading activity rather than a significant build-up of fresh positions.
Liquidations reach $431 million:
Total crypto liquidations climbed to roughly $431 million. Ether accounted for around $130 million, followed by bitcoin at approximately $100 million. Solana, XRP and Zcash also saw substantial liquidations.
Monero positioning looks increasingly crowded:
XMR futures open interest rose 15% to around 637,000 tokens, its highest level since February 2024, according to CoinGlass. The token itself gained about 12% over 24 hours.
The simultaneous increase in price and open interest suggests traders are adding leveraged long exposure. However, annualized perpetual funding rates near 100% indicate that long positions have become expensive and crowded. Any loss of upward momentum could therefore force traders to unwind positions rapidly.
UNI shows similar momentum with less leverage risk:
Uniswap futures open interest increased 12% as UNI gained roughly 5%. Unlike XMR, however, UNI’s perpetual funding rate is around 2%, suggesting positioning is much less stretched.
ZEC, SHIB and DOGE record OI declines:
These three assets posted the largest reductions in open interest during the period, although the amount of capital leaving their derivatives markets was relatively limited.
Bitcoin and ether remain moderately leveraged:
BTC futures open interest is still below 700,000 BTC, compared with roughly 801,000 at the June 4 peak. ETH futures positioning is showing a comparable pattern.
Selling pressure dominates CVD:
The 24-hour cumulative volume delta is negative across most major cryptocurrencies, indicating that sellers are relying more heavily on market orders. XMR and UNI remain the main exceptions, with both recording positive CVD.
Implied volatility falls back:
Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, has dropped below 40% after briefly approaching 50% earlier in August. The move indicates that traders are again anticipating more stable conditions.
Ether’s comparable volatility measure has also declined.
Put demand signals some downside protection:
On Deribit, bitcoin puts at $70,000, $73,000 and $74,000 were among the most actively traded options over the past day. The activity suggests some investors are hedging against a potential decline. Ether options showed a similar pattern.
Token Market Movers
Uniswap led the major altcoins, gaining 6.9% over 24 hours. The move came alongside on-chain data showing more than $1.5 billion of tokenized-stock trading had been processed through Uniswap on Robinhood Chain.
PancakeSwap also advanced 6.9%, although no clear catalyst was identified.
Dash gained 3.4%, Bitcoin Cash rose 1.3% and bitcoin added about 0.7%.
Prom was the biggest loser, falling 18% as traders took profits after a sharp speculative rally. Even after the decline, PROM remained more than 100% higher over seven days.
Bitcoin’s broader picture remains constructive. Despite higher oil prices, weaker equities and renewed geopolitical uncertainty, BTC continues to hold near $78,000 and remains on track for its strongest monthly gain since late 2024.
