Bitcoin’s struggle to reclaim key technical levels is raising concern among analysts, with Glassnode warning that a deeper pullback could be on the horizon if momentum continues to fade.
After months of sideways action between $100,000 and $120,000, BTC appears to be losing steam. In its latest report, Glassnode highlighted that the cryptocurrency’s inability to reclaim the $113,000 short-term holder cost basis — the average entry level of recent investors — suggests weakening confidence in sustaining the current uptrend.
This level has historically served as a critical pivot point for bull markets. Persistent failure to hold above it, Glassnode cautions, could open the door for a sharper retracement, potentially driving prices down toward $88,000, a key realized support zone that marks the average cost basis of actively circulating coins.
Market sentiment data supports the cautionary tone. The Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (STH-NUPL) now sits at –0.05, signaling that short-term investors are selling at mild losses. Meanwhile, long-term holders — typically known for their patience — have started distributing coins again, with 104,000 BTC moved this month, the largest wave of selling since July.
Despite the weakness, volatility has cooled. Following October’s liquidation spike, realized volatility has dropped to 43%, while option skews have normalized, suggesting traders are reducing downside hedges rather than preparing for immediate panic.
Glassnode concludes that Bitcoin may be entering a fragile consolidation phase, where structural stability remains but conviction is thin. Unless long-term holders shift back into accumulation mode and the $113K threshold is reclaimed, the market risks drifting lower.
As of publication, BTC trades near $107,000, down roughly 4% on the day, with traders watching for signs of renewed momentum — or confirmation of a deeper correction ahead.
