VanEck says investors are shifting their focus from headline AI deals to the execution risks facing bitcoin miners as they pursue new revenue streams.
After spending the past two years rebranding themselves as AI infrastructure players, miners are now entering a more demanding phase — proving they can actually deliver on those promises.
In a recent report, VanEck noted that the market is moving beyond the initial excitement of AI-related agreements and is now questioning whether miners can fund and build the large-scale data centers required to support AI workloads.
The firm estimates a near-term funding shortfall of around $50 billion across the sector, with total long-term capital needs potentially reaching $221 billion if current expansion plans continue.
“Execution, not signing, becomes the next premium,” said analyst Griffin MacMaster and Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital asset research. They added that only about 25% of the AI and high-performance computing (HPC) capacity leased so far has actually been delivered, warning that delays could lead to structural valuation declines.
This shift comes as the mining industry undergoes a major transformation. After profitability dropped sharply following the 2024 halving, many operators began redirecting power resources toward AI, betting that tech firms would pay more for energy and data center capacity than traditional mining.
Core Scientific (CORZ) accelerated this pivot through a multibillion-dollar deal with AI firm CoreWeave, repositioning itself as an infrastructure provider. Meanwhile, TeraWulf (WULF), Hut 8 (HUT), Iren (IREN), and Cipher Mining (CIFR) have also moved to lease power and data center capacity to AI and HPC clients. Others, including Marathon Digital (MARA), Riot Platforms (RIOT), and CleanSpark (CLSK), are pursuing hybrid strategies that balance mining with AI expansion.
Despite bitcoin falling roughly 24% this year and broader crypto equities weakening, mining stocks have largely rallied. Riot is up nearly 94% year-to-date, while Cipher Mining has gained about 62%, with similar performance seen across the sector.
The AI narrative has driven some of the strongest gains in crypto-related equities over the past year, with valuations increasingly reflecting AI potential rather than core mining operations.
However, VanEck notes that valuing these companies remains difficult, as they sit between declining mining revenues and AI businesses that have yet to generate significant cash flow.
For now, the firm points to “energized power” — operational power capacity — as the clearest valuation benchmark. Companies with signed AI agreements are trading at more than 10 times energized power, while those still promoting future projects trade at lower multiples.
VanEck also expects investor attention to shift toward the quality of customers. Companies working with investment-grade hyperscalers are likely to benefit from lower financing costs and stronger valuations compared to those partnering with smaller AI startups.
The report highlights HIVE, Bitdeer (BTDR), Keel, and IREN as potential upside names if they secure additional contracts, while suggesting MARA, CLSK, and RIOT remain more closely tied to bitcoin price trends.
Ultimately, VanEck sees the next phase for miners as less about announcing AI ambitions and more about executing them — with success hinging on the ability to finance, build, and operate large-scale data infrastructure on time and within budget.
