In the latest Cardano update, ADA is trading at $0.158, down 1.39% as of July 17. At the same time, derivatives data reflects a growing bearish tilt, with the long-to-short ratio falling to 0.58. Open interest has increased by 4% to $421 million in the 48 hours leading up to the Van Rossem hard fork.
A clear imbalance is forming in the market. While many traders are adding to short positions, whales are aggressively accumulating ADA at levels not seen since 2023. This contrast is building pressure, suggesting a strong breakout could follow once direction is decided.
Van Rossem Hard Fork Set for July 18
The Van Rossem upgrade secured governance approval on July 13, with backing from Stake Pool Operators (SPOs) and Delegated Representatives (DReps). The activation is scheduled for July 18 at 21:44:51 UTC, at Slot 192,844,800.
Intersect has advised all infrastructure participants to update their systems ahead of the fork. This standard step indicates the rollout is progressing smoothly and remains on track.
Reports indicate the upgrade will reduce execution costs on the Cardano network, making transactions and dApp usage more efficient and cost-effective.
More significantly, Van Rossem serves as a stepping stone for the upcoming Leios upgrade, which aims to dramatically increase network throughput by the end of 2026. This makes the fork part of a broader development roadmap, adding weight to the current whale accumulation trend.
Critical Levels: $0.160 and $0.170
CoinGlass liquidation data shows a key liquidity zone between $0.160 and $0.165, just above the current price. A larger cluster is positioned near $0.167, aligning closely with the $0.1709 resistance level seen on the daily chart using Murrey Math analysis.
These levels define the near-term outlook. A drop below $0.160 could trigger long liquidations and push the price toward $0.1465 support. Conversely, a breakout above $0.170 could force short covering, fueling upward momentum as the fork goes live.
On the 4-hour chart, ADA has moved above a descending trendline from its early-July peak near $0.195, but the breakout has yet to gain strength.
The RSI currently stands at 46.92, below its moving average of 50.95, placing it in neutral-to-bearish territory. It is not oversold, indicating the market lacks a strong technical base and is waiting for a catalyst to drive direction.
Upgrade Context and Market Implications
Cardano’s previous major upgrade, the Vasil hard fork in September 2022, improved smart contract efficiency and block performance.
Van Rossem, however, focuses on lowering costs and preparing the network for future scaling via Leios. Additionally, the governance process—now handled through Intersect with formal SPO and DRep participation—reflects a more structured and transparent system compared to earlier upgrades.
The key question for traders is whether this stronger governance framework will lead to sustained buying after the fork, or if bearish traders will use any price increase as an opportunity to expand short positions.
The liquidity cluster near $0.167 remains a crucial signal. A daily close above this level would remove uncertainty and point to bullish continuation. Historically, in major crypto events, the side controlling spot supply tends to prevail, gradually overpowering derivatives positioning.
