Bitcoin’s recent breakout above $80,000 appears to have been fueled primarily by leveraged trading rather than strong spot demand, casting doubt on the rally’s sustainability.
Data indicates that U.S.-based investors—typically a key driver of durable uptrends—have played a limited role in the move. This is reflected in the Coinbase Premium, which has remained negative since late April, according to CryptoQuant. The metric tracks the price difference between bitcoin on Coinbase and offshore exchanges.
A negative reading suggests offshore traders are bidding more aggressively than U.S. investors, effectively leading the rally. In contrast, a positive premium عادة signals stronger institutional demand from the U.S.
Despite this imbalance, bitcoin climbed roughly 5%, briefly topping $82,000 before retreating below $80,000 following a hotter-than-expected U.S. producer price index print. The cryptocurrency was last seen trading near $79,500.
Notably, the entire rally unfolded while the Coinbase Premium stayed below zero—a shift first observed on April 29, when a spike in realized losses pointed to selling pressure from underwater holders.
On-chain data further underscores the lack of strong spot demand. CryptoQuant’s apparent demand metric has improved significantly, narrowing from -91,000 BTC in April to around -11,000 BTC. While this reflects a reduction in excess supply, demand still remains slightly negative.
Instead of spot accumulation, much of the recent activity has been concentrated in perpetual futures markets. These leveraged instruments allow traders to amplify exposure but can unwind quickly if conditions shift, making such rallies more fragile.
That fragility is already showing, with bitcoin slipping back below the $80,000 mark over the past 24 hours.
CryptoQuant analysts describe the current move as more of a relief rally than the start of a new accumulation phase. They draw parallels to March 2022, when bitcoin surged 43% before stalling near its 200-day moving average and resuming its downtrend. The current rally has gained about 37% from April lows, with unrealized profit levels approaching similar territory.
Looking ahead, the $70,000 level is seen as a key support zone. This aligns with the Traders’ On-chain Realized Price—the average cost basis of short-term holders—and could act as a floor if selling pressure intensifies, as profit margins compress toward zero.
