Bitcoin is losing momentum as a sharp wave of outflows from spot ETFs coincides with a rejection at a key technical level.
The 11 U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which collectively drew $3.29 billion in inflows during March and April, are now seeing capital reverse course. On Wednesday, investors pulled $635 million from the funds—the largest single-day outflow since Jan. 29, according to SoSoValue.
The shift appears to be part of a broader trend. Over the past five trading sessions, total outflows have reached $1.26 billion, reducing cumulative net inflows since the ETFs launched in January 2024 to $58.5 billion, down from $59.76 billion a week earlier.
At the same time, bitcoin’s rally has stalled. After climbing from $65,000 to above $80,000, the price has struggled to push beyond the 200-day simple moving average near $82,000. Over the past 24 hours, bitcoin has declined more than 2% to around $79,400.
The pullback is being attributed in part to renewed inflation concerns in the U.S., even as traditional risk assets remain resilient. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reached fresh record highs on Wednesday, underscoring a divergence between crypto and equities.
For market participants, the magnitude of the $635 million outflow is notable, particularly given that ETF inflows had been widely viewed as a key driver of bitcoin’s recent upside. Meanwhile, the macro backdrop is becoming more challenging as inflation pressures persist.
“A sustained period of elevated CPI, a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance, or another oil shock could weigh on bitcoin—even in the presence of positive flows,” said Adam Haeems, head of asset management at Tesseract Group. “The critical question is whether macro conditions remain accommodative enough for those flows to support further price gains.”
That said, the relationship between ETF flows and bitcoin’s price action appears to be weakening. The 90-day rolling correlation between bitcoin’s daily returns and changes in cumulative ETF inflows has fallen to 0.16, down significantly from 0.68 in February—suggesting little meaningful linkage.
In practical terms, ETF flow direction alone is no longer a reliable signal for short-term price movements. Still, large outflows like Wednesday’s remain important, particularly when they align with fading momentum and a less supportive macro environment.
