Prediction market traders lifted the odds of the crypto market structure bill passing this year to 43%, rebounding from last week’s record low. However, the reports behind the move have not been confirmed, and no official bill text has been released.
Polymarket participants sharply increased the likelihood of the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 after reports claimed that President Trump had reached an agreement on the ethics provision that had been holding up the legislation.
The probability of the crypto market structure bill being signed into law this year rose to around 43% on Monday, compared with 32% on Friday, which marked the lowest point since the prediction market began tracking the outcome in January.
The surge in odds came after reports indicated that lawmakers may have resolved the final outstanding issue in months of negotiations over the bill.
Despite the optimism, Democrats have not received the latest version of the legislation, according to a source familiar with the discussions cited by CoinDesk. No revised text has been publicly published, and neither the White House nor the offices of the senators involved have commented on the reports.
The ethics clause has been the primary obstacle preventing the Clarity Act from advancing. The proposed legislation would establish a nationwide regulatory framework for digital assets, while assigning oversight responsibilities between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The controversy centers on whether government officials and political figures should be allowed to profit from crypto-related ventures while holding office. The debate intensified following Trump’s involvement with memecoins and his family’s connection to World Liberty Financial, which recent financial disclosures showed generated millions of dollars.
The ethics provision was reportedly discussed during a July 16 meeting involving Trump, Republican Senators Bernie Moreno and Cynthia Lummis, along with White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt. The Senate faces an early August deadline to vote on the legislation.
Crypto markets continued their upward move on Monday as the reports circulated. Bitcoin traded around $66,300, gaining approximately 3% in 24 hours, while Ether and XRP advanced about 4% each.
Although the Clarity Act developments added to bullish sentiment, traders pointed mainly to the recovery in artificial intelligence and semiconductor stocks as the key driver behind the market rebound. Gains in major chipmakers such as Samsung and SK Hynix helped restore risk appetite across broader markets.
