Momentum is building around the idea that bitcoin may have moved past its latest downturn, though market participants remain split on how durable the recovery is.
Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy (MSTR), заявил that the “crypto winter is over” after bitcoin held above $78,000, a level first reached earlier this week. The comment, posted on X alongside a stylized visual, followed another major purchase by the firm, which added 13,927 BTC to bring its total holdings to 780,897.
Skepticism persists among some analysts.
“Even if bitcoin’s winter is over, I’m not convinced—and altcoins are still under pressure,” said Jason Fernandes, co-founder of AdLunam.
Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics and former senior analyst at eToro, rejects the premise that the market entered a true winter phase. Instead, he characterizes recent volatility as a correction within a broader bull cycle.
“This was a significant pullback, not a prolonged bear market,” Greenspan said.
Even so, he agrees with the broader takeaway from Saylor’s comments—that bitcoin may have already found its bottom and is positioned for further upside.
Analysts say Strategy’s continued accumulation highlights a structural evolution in the market, where corporate treasury demand is becoming a key driver of price action.
Looking ahead, Greenspan argues that institutional flows alone won’t define the next phase.
“Institutional adoption will support the move higher, but the real turning point will come with nation-state adoption,” he said.
He outlined bitcoin’s progression through three major cycles: early adopters in 2013, the retail-driven surge of 2017, and the institutional wave beginning in 2021. The next stage, he believes, will be led by sovereign participation.
“The fourth major cycle—nation-state adoption—could arrive sooner than expected, especially given shifting policy signals in the U.S.,” Greenspan added.
He also suggested central banks could eventually treat bitcoin as a reserve asset, similar to gold, as part of broader financial stability strategies.
There are already signs of that transition. The U.S. is exploring a strategic bitcoin reserve and is estimated to hold around 300,000 BTC. El Salvador continues its steady accumulation program, while China and the U.K. maintain sizable holdings. At the regional level, public entities such as pension funds in Wisconsin and New Jersey have begun adding bitcoin exposure.
Together, these developments point to a potential new phase for bitcoin—one increasingly influenced by sovereign adoption alongside institutional demand.
