Bitcoin retreated after failing to decisively clear the $80,000 level, as a spike in oil prices and entrenched bearish positioning in derivatives markets weighed on sentiment. Still, the recent breakout from a prolonged consolidation phase suggests the rally could gather pace if short sellers are forced to unwind positions, even as altcoin participation continues to fade.
The broader crypto market weakened on Thursday, with bitcoin (BTC) slipping about 0.7% since midnight UTC to hover around $77,600. The pullback followed a strong advance a day earlier that pushed prices to their highest since January, only to meet resistance just below the $80,000 threshold.
Macro pressures played a role in the decline. Oil prices rose roughly 1.5% to $103 per barrel after reports that the U.S. seized three Iranian tankers in Asian waters, denting risk appetite. U.S. equity futures also moved lower, with both S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures down around 0.5%.
Ether (ETH) underperformed, dropping 2.5% to near $2,320 after failing to hold gains near $2,500 reached over the weekend.
Despite the short-term weakness, bitcoin’s broader trend remains intact. The asset appears to have broken out of a multi-month range between $63,000 and $75,000, where it had been consolidating since early February.
In derivatives markets, bitcoin futures open interest has cooled to around 775,000 BTC from near-record highs earlier in the week, though it remains elevated by historical standards. At the same time, negative perpetual funding rates indicate that leveraged traders are still skewed toward bearish bets.
This rare combination has prompted some analysts to label the move a “most hated” rally—one that could accelerate if short positions are squeezed out of the market.
Altcoins, however, continue to lag. Dogecoin (DOGE) has seen open interest climb above 14 billion tokens, a level rarely reached since October, alongside positive funding rates that reflect growing bullish positioning. In contrast, declining open interest in assets such as bitcoin cash (BCH), chainlink (LINK), and litecoin (LTC) points to capital outflows across parts of the altcoin market.
Order flow data reinforces the cautious tone. The cumulative volume delta (CVD) shows sellers dominating activity in major tokens like XRP, solana (SOL), and ether, while only a handful of assets—including bitcoin, M, and CRO—are seeing net buying pressure. This divergence indicates that bitcoin’s rally is not yet broadly supported.
Volatility remains subdued, with bitcoin and ether’s 30-day implied volatility indices hovering near multi-month lows, signaling relatively calm conditions despite geopolitical tensions and ongoing disruptions in oil markets.
Options markets continue to reflect downside hedging demand, with puts trading at a premium to calls on Deribit. However, recent flows show growing interest in bitcoin call options at strike levels between $80,000 and $85,000, suggesting expectations for further upside.
Sector performance underscores the weakness in altcoins. CoinDesk’s DeFi Select Index (DFX) fell 2.7%, making it the worst-performing segment on the day, while the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index dropped 1.1%. CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index declined to 32/100, its lowest level in 10 days, highlighting a continued shift in investor preference toward bitcoin.
A few tokens bucked the broader downtrend. Spark (SPK) surged more than 70% following its listing on Upbit, South Korea’s largest crypto exchange. Privacy coin monero (XMR) also outperformed, gaining 3.3%, while dash (DASH) and zcash (ZEC) remained in the red.
Meanwhile, DeFi tokens stayed under pressure, with morpho and aave declining 4.6% and 2.8%, respectively, as sentiment in the sector remains fragile following the recent $290 million exploit involving KelpDAO.
