A U.S.–Iran agreement helped push oil lower and lifted equities, but Bitcoin’s reaction remained subdued, with ETF outflows only just pausing after a prolonged selling streak. Analysts say markets are waiting for formal confirmation of the deal before fully pricing in the impact.
Bitcoin (BTC) briefly rose above $67,000 late Monday before slipping back under $66,000, highlighting a more cautious response compared with traditional risk assets reacting to the Iran peace developments.
BTC was trading near $65,845 on Tuesday, up 0.3% over the past 24 hours and 4.8% for the week, according to CoinDesk data. It reached an intraday high of $67,217 before losing momentum. Ether outperformed, climbing 2.8% to $1,764, while Solana gained 3.2% to $73. XRP rose 3.2% to $1.22, and Hyperliquid’s HYPE led major tokens with a 6.3% jump to $69.
Macro markets responded more decisively to the developments. A memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran, signed electronically by President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance, helped boost sentiment, with Trump also saying the Strait of Hormuz would fully reopen on Friday.
Oil prices fell sharply, with Brent crude dropping below $83 per barrel after its biggest decline in more than two weeks. Equities rallied as well, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.7% and the Nasdaq 100 rising 3.1% on Monday.
Despite the broader risk-on move, Bitcoin lagged behind.
“Oil dropped more than 4% and Asian equities jumped more than 3% on the ceasefire, but BTC barely moved,” said Jimmy Xue, co-founder and COO of Axis. He described the move as a tentative relief rally rather than a confirmed shift into sustained risk-on positioning in crypto.
The hesitation reflects previous market behavior. Bitcoin has previously reversed gains after earlier Iran-related relief rallies, including after an April ceasefire attempt and again following June 9 developments that later unraveled. Adding to caution, Trump also warned the agreement could be scrapped if Iran fails to shut down its nuclear program.
Traders, Xue said, are likely waiting for the scheduled June 19 signing in Switzerland before fully committing to the move.
ETF flows also point to caution. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have just broken a four-week streak of outflows totaling about $5.4 billion, including a record weekly withdrawal of roughly $3.4 billion. However, a sustained return of inflows has yet to materialize. On the positive side, continued transfers of Bitcoin into cold storage suggest long-term holders are not actively selling.
Not all analysts are cautious.
“Overall, it’s a constructive setup for risk assets, including crypto,” said Chris Perkins, incoming head of Franklin Crypto at Franklin Templeton. He noted that improving macro conditions, combined with the recent SpaceX IPO, could help bring retail investors back into digital assets.
Perkins also highlighted the CLARITY Act, which would define whether digital assets are treated as securities or commodities, saying prediction markets currently price it as a close call but potentially important for institutional adoption.
Attention now shifts to a busy central bank calendar. The Bank of Japan recently raised rates to 1%, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold steady, and the U.S. Federal Reserve is set to announce its decision on Wednesday.
For Bitcoin—often viewed as a high-beta risk asset—the Fed outcome and Friday’s Iran deal signing are seen as the key catalysts that will determine whether the current rally continues or fades like previous attempts.
