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Crypto Holds Ground but New Middle East Tensions and Hawkish Fed Cloud Outlook

Bitcoin remained resilient near the $64,000 mark despite a hawkish Federal Reserve decision, renewed Middle East tensions, and an 8% overnight jump in oil prices that sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 2.2% and pushed the Nasdaq to a three-month low.

The crypto market showed relative stability on Thursday, with bitcoin trading almost unchanged around $63,915 and ether down only 0.25% since the start of the UTC session, even after a difficult day for global markets on Wednesday.

The lack of major price movement, however, concealed sharp swings triggered by the Fed’s rate decision. The volatility forced many leveraged futures traders out of their positions, resulting in a large wave of liquidations.

The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, but three officials voted for a rate increase, reinforcing concerns that monetary policy could remain restrictive. Higher interest rates generally reduce investor appetite for higher-risk assets.

According to CoinGlass, around $286 million worth of crypto positions were liquidated over 24 hours. Long traders accounted for $186 million in losses, while short traders lost about $100 million, showing a market that moved sharply in both directions before settling near previous levels.

Shortly after the Federal Open Market Committee decision, Iran launched multiple ballistic missiles toward U.S. military positions, leading President Donald Trump to promise a forceful response.

Oil prices surged as markets reacted to the escalation, recovering all of Monday’s losses, while U.S. equities weakened. However, futures tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq later recovered and moved slightly higher.

Crypto Derivatives Snapshot

Futures sentiment shifts slightly bearish:
Crypto futures positioning turned marginally negative, with short taker volume accounting for 51% of activity, according to CoinGlass data. The broader market remained relatively inactive, with open interest and trading volume showing little change from the previous day.

UNI leads among major tokens:
Uniswap’s UNI emerged as one of the strongest performers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies. Despite its price gains, futures open interest declined to 65.8 million tokens, suggesting traders were closing positions. The token’s 24-hour cumulative volume delta (CVD) remained negative, indicating that sellers using market orders were driving much of the activity.

Bitcoin leverage remains muted:
Bitcoin open interest remained near 750,000 BTC, where it has stayed since early June, suggesting limited new leverage entering the recent recovery. Ether’s open interest also declined below 14 million ETH after reaching a six-week high of 14.53 million, pointing to reduced leveraged demand despite ether’s stronger monthly performance compared with bitcoin.

Altcoin market remains under selling pressure:
Most of the top 25 cryptocurrencies, excluding bitcoin, Cardano, TRON, Cronos, and Zcash, recorded negative open-interest-adjusted CVD readings over the past 24 hours. The data suggests bearish traders continue to dominate activity across much of the altcoin market.

Bitcoin volatility moves lower:
Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, dropped below 38%, approaching levels that have previously acted as volatility floors. However, volatility typically returns toward historical averages, meaning the current low level could leave room for a sudden increase.

Options traders position for upside:
Deribit options activity showed strong demand for bitcoin calls at the $70,000 and $75,000 strike prices, which ranked among the most traded contracts over the past 24 hours. Ether options displayed a similar pattern, with the most actively traded contracts all favoring bullish call positions.

Token Performance

Injective (INJ) was the standout performer over the last 24 hours, gaining 6.95% as DeFi-related tokens outperformed. Uniswap (UNI) rose 4.46%, while FET recovered 3.28% after a difficult week.

Zcash (ZEC) continued its strong run, climbing 1.54% since midnight UTC to $474 and maintaining momentum ahead of other privacy-focused cryptocurrencies. Monero (XMR) added 0.4%.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) slipped 0.47% to $53.64, extending its decline from recent highs and bringing its pullback to around 30% from its peak.

Lighter (LIT) dropped 4.22% over the past day, though it remained slightly positive since midnight, suggesting sellers may be losing momentum after a correction that erased nearly 25% from its July high.

Jupiter (JUP) declined 1.48% since midnight after briefly recovering on Wednesday. Trading activity continued to weaken, with daily volume falling to around $23 million after regularly exceeding $50 million earlier this year.